Some Feedback Regarding Trump's Tax/Tariffs

First, The Financial Times:

Trade economists have poured scorn on the crude methodology used by Donald Trump to calculate the list of “reciprocal” global tariffs imposed by his administration. 

Under the US president’s plan set out on Wednesday night, a baseline tariff of 10 per cent will be levied on all imports from all countries excluding Canada and Mexico, while countries with larger trade deficits with the US were hit with much higher numbers. 

The formula used to calculate the tariffs, released by the US trade representative, took the US’s trade deficit in goods with each country as a proxy for alleged unfair practices, then divided it by the amount of goods imported into the US from that country.

That last part is what doesn't make sense to actual economist, the article goes on to say.

Then there's The Wall Street Journal:

Capital Economics estimated that the import taxes outlined by President Trump Wednesday afternoon are likely to annually generate about that much in customs duties.

The tariffs will raise a maximum of $835 billion, the firm's economists calculate. But “assuming such high tariffs lead to a marked decline in imports, the increase in revenues will probably end up closer to $700 billion,” they wrote in a note to clients. That is equivalent to 2.3% of the country's gross domestic product, they wrote.

Meanwhile, the economists say that since imports account for about 10% of consumption, the roughly 25% effective tariff rate that they calculate will add about 2.5% to consumer prices, lifting inflation to above 4% by the end of the year.

And remember, as we said yesterday, conservative economists have insisted for years that consumers pay the tariffs.  So we will be paying the $700 billion - and what will we gain from it?

Inflation above 4% by the end of the year.

"Liberation" Day

Yep - that's today:

President Trump is set to unveil his most expansive tariffs to date on Wednesday afternoon, when he will detail potentially punishing levies on countries around the globe, including America’s largest trading partners.

Mr. Trump has promised for months to impose what he calls “reciprocal” tariffs, which the president says will correct years of “unfair” trade in which other countries have been “ripping off” America.

“We helped everybody, and they don’t help us,” Mr. Trump said on Monday.

The details haven't been announced as of yet, but let's take a look at what our formerly economically conservative friends once had to say about the topic.

First, a definition from the Tax Foundation:

Tariffs are taxes imposed by one country on goods imported from another country. Tariffs are trade barriers that raise prices, reduce available quantities of goods and services for US businesses and consumers, and create an economic burden on foreign exporters.

And they work this way:

Tariffs are paid when a good or services is imported into a country. If a car manufacturer imports engines that are then used in vehicles, then tariffs on those imported engines will increase the production cost and the cost to the consumer. The costs of tariffs result in higher burdens on international trade which can harm production.

Many businesses have supply chains that cross multiple borders, and each border that is crossed could result in higher costs due to tariffs.

Huh. 

But let's delve deeper into the conservative hive mind.

What does the conservative Club for Growth have to say about tariffs?

Take a look. In 2019 they had this to say: 

Tariffs are taxes that hurt U.S. consumers and key pillars of our economy, including manufacturing and agriculture. Tariffs slow economic productivity and decrease the impact of the many other successes within your economic agenda, like tax cuts and deregulation. 

Huh.

How 'bout Heritage?

Well, back in 2019, this was posted at The Heritage Foundation: 

A tariff is a government-imposed tax on goods imported into a country. Imposing a tax on imports makes them more expensive. The government’s goal is to increase revenue—but another aim is to reduce the amount of goods people import.

Many people believe that when tariffs are imposed on a country, that country bears the costs. However, this is not the case. Tariffs are paid by an individual or business importing the subjected good. When a government collects revenue from tariffs, it is collecting it from its own citizens—not from the citizens of the country upon whose goods tariffs were imposed.

Huh.

And what are some economists saying about the oncoming Trump Tariffs?

Take a look:

One of the nation’s most prominent investment banks is warning its clients that the United States could soon be in the throes of a recession. CNN reports that Goldman Sachs has raised its internal probability metrics to reflect a growing possibility for a recession:

The Wall Street bank warned clients Sunday night that it now sees a 35% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, up from 20% previously. Goldman Sachs also increased its inflation estimate, slashed its 2025 GDP forecast to just 1% and bumped up its year-end unemployment rate outlook by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%. The bank explained its reasoning in a report, citing, in part, “statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies.”[Italics in original.]

 And at this:

J.P. Morgan Research has lowered its estimate for 2025 real GDP growth due to heightened trade policy uncertainty, the effect of existing tariffs and retaliatory measures by foreign trading partners. Real GDP growth is now expected to be 1.6% for the year, down 0.3% from previous estimates.

“Heightened trade policy uncertainty should weigh on activity growth, particularly for capital spending,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. Economist at J.P. Morgan. “Plus, tariffs that have already been imposed will create a bump to headline inflation, pushing up consumer prices by 0.2 percentage points. Retaliatory tariffs would also serve to drag on gross export growth.”

So when/if this all goes south, no one can say we haven't been warned.

 

 

 

20 Lessons - Snyder, By Way of Lithgow

Day 71

The text:

1. Do not obey in advance.  Most of the power of authoritarianism is freely given. In times like these, individuals think ahead about what a more repressive government will want, and then offer themselves without being asked.  A citizen who adapts in this way is teaching power what it can do. 

2.  Defend institutions.  It is institutions that help us to preserve decency.  They need our help as well.  Do not speak of "our institutions" unless you make them yours by acting on their behalf.  Institutions do not protect themselves.  They fall one after the other unless each is defended from the beginning.  So choose an institution you care about -- a court, a newspaper, a law, a labor union -- and take its side.

3. Beware the one-party state.  The parties that remade states and suppressed rivals were not omnipotent from the start.  They exploited a historic moment to make political life impossible for their opponents.  So support the multiple-party system and defend the rules of democratic elections.  Vote in local and state elections while you can.  Consider running for office.

4. Take responsibility for the face of the world.  The symbols of today enable the reality of tomorrow.  Notice the swastikas and the other signs of hate.  Do not look away, and do not get used to them.  Remove them yourself and set an example for others to do so.

5. Remember professional ethics.  When political leaders set a negative example, professional commitments to just practice become more important. It is hard to subvert a rule-of-law state without lawyers, or to hold show trials without judges.  Authoritarians need obedient civil servants, and concentration camp directors seek businessmen interested in cheap labor.

6. Be wary of paramilitaries.  When the men with guns who have always claimed to be against the system start wearing uniforms and marching with torches and pictures of a leader, the end is nigh.  When the pro-leader paramilitary and the official police and military intermingle, the end has come.

7. Be reflective if you must be armed.  If you carry a weapon in public service, may God bless you and keep you.  But know that evils of the past involved policemen and soldiers finding themselves, one day, doing irregular things.  Be ready to say no.

8. Stand out.  Someone has to.  It is easy to follow along.  It can feel strange to do or say something different.  But without that unease, there is no freedom.  Remember Rosa Parks.  The moment you set an example, the spell of the status quo is broken, and others will follow.

9. Be kind to our language.  Avoid pronouncing the phrases everyone else does.  Think up your own way of speaking, even if only to convey that thing you think everyone is saying.  Make an effort to separate yourself from the internet.  Read books.

10. Believe in truth.  To abandon facts is to abandon freedom.  If nothing is true, then no one can criticize power, because there is no basis upon which to do so.  If nothing is true, then all is spectacle.  The biggest wallet pays for the most blinding lights.

11. Investigate.  Figure things out for yourself.  Spend more time with long articles. Subsidize investigative journalism by subscribing to print media.  Realize that some of what is on the internet is there to harm you.  Learn about sites that investigate propaganda campaigns (some of which come from abroad).  Take responsibility for what you communicate with others.

12. Make eye contact and small talk.  This is not just polite.  It is part of being a citizen and a responsible member of society.  It is also a way to stay in touch with your surroundings, break down social barriers, and understand whom you should and should not trust.  If we enter a culture of denunciation, you will want to know the psychological landscape of your daily life.

13. Practice corporeal politics.  Power wants your body softening in your chair and your emotions dissipating on the screen.  Get outside.  Put your body in unfamiliar places with unfamiliar people.  Make new friends and march with them.

14. Establish a private life.  Nastier rulers will use what they know about you to push you around.  Scrub your computer of malware on a regular basis.  Remember that email is skywriting.  Consider using alternative forms of the internet, or simply using it less.  Have personal exchanges in person.  For the same reason, resolve any legal trouble.  Tyrants seek the hook on which to hang you.  Try not to have hooks.

15. Contribute to good causes.  Be active in organizations, political or not, that express your own view of life.  Pick a charity or two and set up autopay.  Then you will have made a free choice that supports civil society and helps others to do good.

16. Learn from peers in other countries.  Keep up your friendships abroad, or make new friends in other countries.  The present difficulties in the United States are an element of a larger trend.  And no country is going to find a solution by itself.  Make sure you and your family have passports.

17. Listen for dangerous words.  Be alert to use of the words "extremism" and "terrorism."  Be alive to the fatal notions of "emergency" and "exception."  Be angry about the treacherous use of patriotic vocabulary.

18. Be calm when the unthinkable arrives.  Modern tyranny is terror management.  When the terrorist attack comes, remember that authoritarians exploit such events in order to consolidate power.  The sudden disaster that requires the end of checks and balances, the dissolution of opposition parties, the suspension of freedom of expression, the right to a fair trial, and so on, is the oldest trick in the Hitlerian book.  Do not fall for it.

19. Be a patriot.  Set a good example of what America means for the generations to come.  They will need it.

20. Be as courageous as you can.  If none of us is prepared to die for freedom, then all of us will die under tyranny. [Bolding and italics in original]

Donald Trump is still a felon. He's still a criminal. 

 

McCormick Monday

First of a series.

I will be sending this letter to the Senator's office via the United States Postal Service and any response I get I'll post here verbatim.

Dear Senator McCormick;

I am a resident of Pennsylvania and a constituent of yours and I'd you to answer a question or two.

NBC News reported this weekend:

President Donald Trump did not rule out the possibility of seeking a third term in the White House, which is prohibited by the Constitution under the 22nd Amendment, saying in an exclusive interview with NBC News that there were methods for doing so and clarifying that he was “not joking.”

Given that  the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution reads:

No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.  

And given that you took an oath to support and defend the Constitution when you became US Senator, do you support Donald Trump's end run around the 22nd Amendment?

I'll await your answer, Senator.

 

Protest Follow-up

Hey, remember yestiddy? 

Here's some coverage.

WPXI:

Holding “Missing” milk cartons, a couple hundred demonstrators filled Schenley Plaza in Oakland Saturday in what they called a search party for Republican Sen. Dave McCormick and Democrat Sen. John Fetterman.

They danced in blow-up chicken suits in front of a big sign reading, ‘Two chickens, Too chicken?

“They can hide but I think these are the forums we have to get them to pay attention,” said demonstrator Sam Doverspike.

And:

Several demonstrators filled the lawn, asking where McCormick and Fetterman are, calling them cowards.

WESA: 

Protesters gathered in Oakland Saturday afternoon to demand an audience with Pennsylvania’s U.S. senators.

“All we want to do is have our elected officials hear us out,” said Sean Meloy, a Democratic political strategist who ran for Congress in 2022. “They're helping one of the richest senators get richer with a book tour! That's what they're doing at this time of crisis.”

The demonstration had originally been called when Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Dave McCormick were scheduled to appear together for at a ticketed book event Saturday. The event was canceled Friday, but the protest continued without them, drawing a crowd of hundreds.

Fetterman and McCormick have faced pressure from constituents to hold public town halls, as the federal government makes rapid changes to social safety net programs and federal spending. Tensions have escalated at town hall events across the country in recent weeks, with Republicans in particular facing outrage from constituents angry about the Trump administration’s policies.

Let me add by saying that, from what I could tell at the protest, this crowd was angry at Fetterman for not fighting back against the Trump regime enough.  

For example, he voted to confirm of Kristi Noem, well-known puppy killer, as head of DHS.

So when Rolling Stone reports: 

Ranjani Srinivasan

The day before Khalil was detained, federal immigration agents went to the apartment of Columbia University student Ranjani Srinivasan. Srinivasan, a graduate student studying architecture, had moved to the U.S. from India as a Fulbright scholar in 2016. She did not answer the door when agents arrived, as she spoke with someone from the school’s international student office about the notice she’d received that her student visa had been revoked.

A fearful Srinivasan fled to Canada, and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem posted security footage of her with her suitcase at LaGuardia airport. “It is a privilege to be granted a visa to live & study in the United States of America,” Noem wrote on X. “When you advocate for violence and terrorism that privilege should be revoked and you should not be in this country.”

The State Department has not provided evidence backing Noem’s claims that Srinivasan, 37, was involved in activities supporting Hamas.

“I’m fearful that even the most low-level political speech or just doing what we all do — like shout into the abyss that is social media — can turn into this dystopian nightmare,” Srinivasan told The New York Times, “where somebody is calling you a terrorist sympathizer and making you, literally, fear for your life and your safety.” 

Or when The NYTimes reports:

The administration has also targeted students who have been less involved. Rumeysa Ozturk, a Turkish citizen and graduate student at Tufts University, was taken into federal custody on Tuesday. She had drawn the attention of a right-wing group that claims to combat antisemitism on college campuses and publicizes its findings online after helping write an opinion piece in the student newspaper criticizing the university’s response to pro-Palestinian demands.

Tricia McLaughlin, a spokeswoman for the Department of Homeland Security, said investigators with that agency and Immigration and Customs Enforcement “found Ozturk engaged in activities in support of Hamas, a foreign terrorist organization that relishes the killing of Americans. A visa is a privilege, not a right.” She did not offer evidence or details of that support.

A video of Ms. Ozturk’s detention, showing plainclothes agents from the Homeland Security Department detaining her as she was heading out to break her Ramadan fast with friends, has circulated widely online. “This video should shake everyone to their core,” her lawyer, Mahsa Khanbabai, said in a statement on Wednesday. Ms. Ozturk is being held in Louisiana.

We, Pennsylvanians, should be able to ask either of PA's senators if they're now comfortable with their vote confirming the puppy killer. How about the lack of due process here? I'll assume the MAGA/GOP senator is OK with Trump regime, but the Democrat?

WTF is that all about?

I even had an email response (email responses are always welcome - see the links to your upper right on this page). An astute reader replied:

You are much too polite. I have been lambasting Fetterman on socials like a possessed demon. I did laugh today when someone referred to him and the sainted Giselle as Uncle Fester and Morticia.

His fixation on Israel, to the exclusion of just about anything else, is bizarre. His refusal to have his staff respond to anything is inexcusable, and deciding that the best thing he can do at this perilous moment is to help a filthy rich couple who don’t live in PA sell more books is just nauseating.

If he saw the bright lights and gold toilets and senior citizen breast implants at Mar A Lago and thought wow, this is the life I’ve been dreaming of, then he needs to resign and go wallow in the MAGA filth and let PA have a real senator. 

So where was John Fetterman? And why doesn't he want to face these folks? Anyone know?

 

 

Where Was Sen. Fetterman? Where Was Sen. McCormick?

Let's start a few weeks ago - Eventbrite (by way of the wayback machine):

From the Eventbrite description:

A conversation with Senator David McCormick, Senator John Fetterman, Dina Powell McCormick, and Gisele Barreto Fetterman

And: 

In this discussion, Dina and David will share insights from some of the most successful leaders in the country who credit mentorship as a defining force in their success. Through real-world stories, they unpack the four key elements of transformative mentorship–trust, shared values, meaningful commitment, and instilling confidence. [Bolding in original]

That's the discussion the Fettermans were going to join. 

Tickets were thirty bucks (or there abouts) things were set.

Then this happened: 

Pennsylvania Sens. Dave McCormick and John Fetterman will host their first joint public event in Pittsburgh this Saturday, but not everyone is pleased with the Democratic senator's bipartisan show of support for his Republican colleagues' new book. 

An activist group, Mondays Without McCormick Pittsburgh, is planning a protest with Indivisible Pittsburgh this Saturday, urging both Pennsylvania senators to listen to their concerned constituents and host a town hall.

So this is what those "activists" did: 

"Instead of holding town halls, they are hawking a book at a paid event at City Winery. Join us to tell them NO! NO to dismantling the Department of Education. NO to defunding SNAP and programs that feed our kids. NO to cuts to NIH which supports research for our kids and ALL of us. And NO to attacks on our democracy - the legacy we will leave our kids," the Facebook event invite reads. 

The McCormicks co-wrote their new book about mentorship, "WHO BELIEVED IN YOU?," and the book tour is billed as a discussion of transformative mentorship "from some of the most successful leaders in the country." According to an Eventbrite, the book tour event is $32, which includes the cost of a book at $29.99. 

The Pittsburgh protesters have ridiculed the "paid book event," which was originally planned at City Winery. The event location has since been changed to: "Location to be announced." However, the protesters have not been deterred, vowing to gather in the Strip District. 

Actually it ended up being at Schenley Plaza in Oakland.

In any event, there was another wrinkle to the story.

Check it aht: 

A paid event featuring U.S. Sens. Dave McCormick and John Fetterman that had been scheduled for Saturday in Pittsburgh has been postponed.  

Sure - it was "postponed."

Pennlive has a little more: 

A controversial event on Saturday that was supposed to feature Sen. Dave McCormick and Sen. John Fetterman and their wives talking about the power of mentorship, has been canceled at the last minute due to an “unforeseen logistical issue,” according to an email sent out to people who purchased tickets.

Sure - it was an  “unforeseen logistical issue.”

I was at the protest at Schenley Plaza today:

Some of the speakers had actually purchased tickets to the McCormick/Fetterman brofest and, evidently, had planned to read a statement to the Senators at the event. Each wondered why either Senator lacked the courage to face them.

Each speaker had an important story to tell and important grievances to bring to their Senators in Congress but because of whatever "unforeseen logistical issue" cancelled postponed the winery event, they didn't get to.

Where was Senator McCormick? Where was his buddy Senator Fetterman?

Maybe they went back to lunch at Fogo de Chão.

Remember this?:

Great to break bread with @SenFettermanPA, Gisele, & Dina to talk about where we can work together to best serve PA - from stopping the spread of fentanyl, to fighting antisemitism & supporting Israel, & providing the best constituent services for the people of our commonwealth. pic.twitter.com/Fk4hW1HOLY

— Senator Dave McCormick (@SenMcCormickPA) January 9, 2025

Look at the date - Jan 9, 2025. That's not even a full week after Senator McCormick first took this oath on January 3:

I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter. So help me God. 

ConnecticutDave was not even a week into the job (probably didn't even know where the paper clips are stored) and he and John are deep into a Senatorial bromance. 

Any comment, Senator Fetterman?
Any comment, Senator McCormick?

When will you be hosting a town hall to hear from your constituents?  I have a few things to ask each of you and I know the folks at this protest have questions as well.

On Shelves Now!