Even with a Green Party candidate now in the race, Democratic challenger Bob Casey leads Republican Sen. Rick Santorum, according to a poll released Tuesday.And
In a three-way matchup, Casey leads Santorum 45 percent to 39 percent, with Green Party candidate Carl Romanelli picking up 5 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters. Eleven percent were undecided or did not plan to vote.
In a two-way race, 47 percent of the respondents in the Quinnipiac Poll favored Casey to 40 percent for Santorum, with 13 percent either undecided or expressing another opinion. The seven-point advantage is down from an 18-point lead Casey had in the same poll in June.So right now I guess it looks like this: If it's a two way race, Casey is favored 47% to 40% over Lil Ricky. If enough of the Romanelli petitions are valid (and as I understand it, this is yet to be determined) and he's in the race, Casey loses 2% and Santorum loses 1% and Romanelli gains 5%. My next guess is that all that movement is within the polls margin of error.
Bottom line is that at this point, there's not much of a shift.
Certainly not $100,000 worth.
Huh - when will those three dozen Republican donors who brought Romanelli to the table be wondering whether they've wasted their $$$?
Looks like they better decide soon - Romanelli's now "out of money."
So, over some period of time, say four months, Santorum has closed the gap from like 15% to 7%. That implies that by November the gap could close to 0%. This is a reasonable conclusion, too, since the people who are now undecided are the people who don't have strong political opinions, who might be swayed by the fact that Santorum is the incumbent or by either a terror/war issue or immigration. Still, any debate that is going to happen is yet to happen, and Santorum has been showing signs of self-destructing. The residency issue may be different for a Senator than for a Representative (such as Doug Walgren). People don’t expect to see a senator in town like they expect to see their Representative. Here’s hoping Casey finds an issue to split Santorum from the majority of Pennsylvanians, maybe the minimum wage.
ReplyDeleteActually, those are shocking numbers. It puts the race within reach. Of course, you have to wonder had the dems gone to all that bother to pick a pro choice, even marginally anti-slaughter candidate that candidate would probably have Rendell like numbers. Just shocking stupidity on behalf of the dems...still think Singel was the guy....
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