Jack Kelly Sunday

Last week, it was the Clinton/Obama race.

This week it's Obama/Wright.

How much you wanna bet next week's column will be on Reverend Hagee's characterization of the Roman Catholic Church as the "Whore of Babylon"? Or on Senator McCain's denounciation of Rod Parsely for claiming that the United States was "founded, in part, with the intention of seeing this false religion (Islam) destroyed"?

Yea, you're right. There's next to no chance that either will happen. It's ok if you're a Republican. At least Senator Obama never called his wife the "c-word."

Anyway, back to Jack. It's an odd little column - meandering, almost non-committal in a way. He characterizes the Obama campaign as a "sinking ship", Senator Obama's poll numbers as "plunging" and says that the Reverend Wright could torpedo the campaign with one interview, (whether or not he speaks the truth) about his relationship with Senator Obama.

However Jack Kelly ends the column with this:

The pundits say Mrs. Clinton faces a must-win primary in Indiana Tuesday. That's true. But the more important primary that day may be in North Carolina, which -- because of the state's large black population -- was to have been Sen. Obama's firewall. All polls taken since Monday show the race there has narrowed dramatically. One showed Mrs. Clinton with a slight lead. If she were to win in North Carolina, it would be clear the bloom is off the Obama rose.

If Mr. Obama wins, however narrowly, in North Carolina Tuesday and, two weeks later, in Oregon, he can limp to the nomination because super delegates are more afraid of offending blacks than they are of losing in November.

That's probably what will happen ... unless Jeremiah Wright opens his mouth again.

So at the end of it all, Senator Obama will "probably" "limp to the nomination" in November.

Let's take a closer look at the meat of Jack's column, though. Jack writes:

Support for Sen. Barack Obama has plunged nationally and (more importantly) in North Carolina since Rev. Wright confirmed at his National Press Club appearance Monday that he does indeed hold racist, lunatic, anti-American views, and implied that Sen. Obama has been insincere in separating himself from them. "He had to distance himself, because he's a politician," Rev. Wright said.

Note the word "plunged". Note, also, that he doesn't give any examples. Here are some:

Gallup Poll daily tracking. Three-day rolling average. N=approx. 1,200 Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters nationwide. MoE ± 3. Preference for Democratic Nominee:

May 2, 2008
Clinton 47%
Obama 47%

May 1, 2008
Clinton 48%
Obama 46%

April 30, 2008
Clinton 49%
Obama 45%

April 29, 2008
Clinton 47%
Obama 46%

April 28, 2008
Clinton 47%
Obama 46%

Jeremiah Wright spoke at the National Press Club on April 28 so going back any farther doesn't make much sense.

By the way, where's the "plunge"?

Here's a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll that does show a drop. When asked the question:

"Who would you MOST like to see win the Democratic nomination for president: Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama?" (Names rotated)

The numbers from 3/14-16/08 are:

Obama 52%
Clinton 45%

From 4/28-30/08:

Obama 45%
Clinton 45%

Note first that with these two polls, there's a drop of seven points for Senator Obama. No rise for Senator Clinton. And also, note the second poll was taken the day of Wright's appearance at the National Press Club as well as two days later. Senator Obama's response did not occur until the 29th. So Kelly's "plunge" may just be a temporary drop. No way to tell until more time has elapsed.

Sinking ship? Where?