Altmire-Rothfus

The P-G's Daniel Malloy has an interesting run down on the Altmire/Rothfus race - a race I haven't spent much time thinking about, basically because it seemed so one-sided. The reason can be summed up by something Malloy wrote:

Mr. Rothfus is at a significant financial disadvantage to the well-stocked Mr. Altmire...

According to Opensecrets.org, at last report (June 30, 2010) Almire had raised nearly $2 million and spent about $480,000 leaving him about $1.5 million. Keith Rothfus, on the other hand had only raised about $560,000 and spent $360,000 leaving him with about $200,000.

So it looked, at the beginning of July that Altmire had a war chest 7 times the size as Rothfus. I would think that's pretty much the definition of "one-sided."

But things may not be exactly what they appear to be.

Back to Malloy:

When Keith Rothfus hits the campaign trail, the bespectacled Republican attorney from Edgeworth spends a lot of time talking about 2006.

That was the year when a political upstart overcame a big fundraising disadvantage to unseat Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District incumbent, who was tied to an unpopular president during a wave year for the opposition party. And Mr. Rothfus is looking to replicate Rep. Jason Altmire's path in what is looking like a similar electoral tide -- though this time, it's the GOP advancing on the Democrats.

For his part, though, Altmire's no Missy Hart. For starters, he's no fan of the Obama Administration:

Mr. Altmire, who unseated Melissa Hart in 2006 and went on to beat her in a rematch two years ago, is inclined to agree with the shortcomings of the Democratic Congress, and his message often can be boiled down to: Don't blame me.

His ads declare that he is not beholden to Speaker Nancy Pelosi and President Barack Obama. He proved it, he said, by voting against some of their biggest priorities -- health care reform and a comprehensive climate bill, to name two.

He's among those mentioned in this piece in the Huffingtonpost regarding "vulnerable" Democrats distancing themselves from the Democratic Party.

ith a 7-to-1 financial advantage, Altmire can't really be said to be "vulnerable," can he? At the very least he's among those who "declared their independence" from the party, though as Cristina Silva of the Huffpo says:

The tactic could hurt Democratic turnout at a time when the party needs to protect its majority in Congress, some political strategists say.

"They want to get turnout as high as possible among those who vote for Democrats," said Joseph Bafumi, a government professor at Dartmouth College. "Running away from the president or the party might not be the way to do it."

Democrats such as Altmire, Edwards, Space and Nye stand out for defying party leaders on leading issues such as health care, but they are having to defend their independent bona fides because of the "D" after their name.

On the otherside of the aisle, Rothfus has been endorsed by Pat Toomey's old pals at the Club for Growth:

Rothfus is a Tea Party favorite, an anti-establishment economic conservative who defeated a heavily-favored Republican in the May primary despite having far lower name ID and less campaign cash. His pro-growth bona fides are further burnished by a particular notable credential. He was a Pat Toomey volunteer in the 2004 Senate primary race against Arlen Specter.

He's also moving up the latter with the RNCC. He's made it onto their "Contender" list. From the RNCC press release:

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) today announced its newest round of ‘On the Radar' and ‘Contender' candidates. By reaching the first and second step of the three-step ‘Young Guns' program, these Republican candidates have reached the fundamental benchmarks to place them on the road to victory. Now, these 23 candidates are ready to take on the Democrat establishment and return fiscal sanity to Washington.

So I guess "Contender" is the second step? I am not sure. Presumably this means more national funding for Rothfus. But I don't know that either.

Of course, the spin's begun - as is the need to unspin it. Malloy:

Mr. Rothfus' assertion that Mr. Altmire votes the party line nearly 90 percent of the time is technically true, but because the House casts votes on so many noncontroversial issues -- naming post offices, congratulating championship sports teams and the like -- that number is misleading, Mr. Altmire says. He is consistently ranked near the bottom of the Democratic caucus in party loyalty.

Misleading campaign charges? Ah, we're home.