Democracy Has Prevailed.

September 22, 2006

Altmire/Hart Race Tightens - more bad news for Missy

PoliticsPA is running this headline/blurb on its website:
Altmire Poll: Within Margin of Error A new poll conducted by Anzalone-Liszt Research for the PA4 Altmire for Congress race shows Melissa Hart leading Jason Altmire 48- 44. The margin of error was 4.9%
Luckily, I got hold of the memo describing the poll results. The memo begins with this:
Recent polling confirms that Republican Congresswoman Melissa Hart is in the toughest re-election battle of her career. With a national political environment that continues to be very rough for Republicans, Hart has dropped below 50% on the current vote and only has a four-point lead over Democrat Jason Altmire. Hart faces an electorate that believes the United States is moving in the wrong direction and favors a Democratic candidate on the generic ballot.
None of which is good news for Melissa Hart.

And then there's the data. They poll Altmire/Hart at 44% to 48% and say it represents a 10 point swing since last June. Take a look - Missy's below 50%. Bad news for an incumbent.

They also point out that Hart's approval/disapproval numbers are 52% to 42%. More bad news for an incumbent.

Remember, this is the poll data coming from the firm who did the poll for the Altmire campaign.

Now I wonder if the Hart campaign did a poll. That's right, they did. But they're not releasing it.

Again, I gotta wonder why.

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Anonymous said...

Altimre winning would be a huge upset. I still think Melissa Hart wins this race.

Anonymous said...

This is GREAT! I've heard Altmire's been doing all the right things and this proves it.

Anonymous said...

Posted this on Daily Kos and MyDD this morning. If Altmire can up his name recognition, he has a shot.

Shawn said...

Good; this is good.

Justin said...

Altmire seems like a sharp guy, and I like that he has a background in health care. That said, he seems to be saying the same "more affordable" healthcare as everyone else. What would it take to get a candidate who believes in a single-payer system to make it past the primary? I mean, I understand that I'm in a minority in the Democratic party in that I'm a pretty hardcore socialist (registered Dem only because of the antiquated primary system in Pennsylvania), but I'm rather sick of being completely unrepresented on a lot of my views.

Of course, to fix that, we'd probably have to fix everything...

Anonymous said...

It seems as if the NRCC is starting to get worried. This evening my television has just been blitzed by Hart/GOP Advertisements. Granted there have been some Altmire ads, they aren't nearly as cutting as the Hart/GOP variety.

For instance, there is on commercial running from the NRCC that ties Altmire to Clinton and the '93 Healthcare Reform movement.

Hopefully, people will see right through this attempt to re-run the "Harry and Louise" attack (I believe that is the name of the characters from the ads back in 93). Her ad attempts to tell people that Altmire supports "government workers telling you when you can see a doctor", "waiting lists," and implicating rationing of healthcare.

The problem with this ad is of course that the private sector HMOs are notorious for these problems. Having to get opinions of multiple "doctors" who are paid by the HMO to help them deny coverage. Anyone who has had to wait and wait and wait for a "referral" knows these ads are full of baloney (and not the good kind, nope, full of that really cheap stuff).

I hope Altmire can pull it out, but he is going to need a lot of help.

On a side note NYT's election profile page lists Hart's seat as "Safe Republican". I really hope they are listing these close races that way, it will look like a hurricane hit and flooded Congress when this election is over.