Democracy Has Prevailed.

September 24, 2006

Ten Points Down

Remember when Rick Santorum was "closing the gap" in the poll numbers? From CNN on August 15):
Sen. Rick Santorum (R) has gained significant ground in the last two months on State Treasurer Robert Casey (D), who is challenging him for his Pennsylvania Senate seat, a new Quinnipiac University poll released this morning shows. But Santorum still faces an uphill battle to win re-election, as 49 percent of Pennsylvania likely voters say that the incumbent should not be re-elected.

The poll says that Casey leads Santorum 48 percent to 42 percent among likely voters, with Green Party candidate Carl Romanelli collecting 5 percent and the remaining 5 percent of voters undecided. In a head-to-head match-up, Casey has a 47 percent to 40 percent advantage over Santorum, while a June 21 poll by the university had Casey leading Santorum 52 percent to 34 percent.
Then there was this ten days later:
After having lagged by as much as twenty-three percentage points this election season, Republican Senator Rick Santorum now trails Democrat Bob Casey, Jr. by only eight, 40% to 48% (see crosstabs).

Until now the incumbent has failed to pull within single digits of his opponent. Last month, Santorum suffered an eleven-point deficit in our poll, which he'd shaved from fifteen points in June. But Santorum had also been eleven points behind in March...a gap that in May more than doubled.
As Ponyboy Curtis might say, that was then, this is now. From the Philadelphia Inquirer:
Disapproval of President Bush remains a powerful undertow in Pennsylvania politics, threatening Republican candidates for the U.S. Senate and House, according to a new poll by Temple University and The Inquirer.

The Bush effect - strongest in the southeast region - is acting as a drag on Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, and tugs at GOP House incumbents in the suburbs of Philadelphia, who are locked in three of the nation's most competitive races.

Democrat Bob Casey Jr., the state treasurer, led Santorum, 49 percent to 39 percent, among the 666 likely voters polled. Three percent of respondents favored Green Party candidate Carl Romanelli, and 8 percent said they were undecided. [emphasis added]
Ten Points down. We're six weeks (or so) away from the election and Lil Ricky's ten points down. That does not bode well at all - for him.

Some more bad news for the Senator:
"Some of the reason Santorum trails is due to national forces, but it's not the whole story," said pollster Michael G. Hagen, an associate professor of political science at Temple and director of the school's Institute for Public Affairs.

"It is also about his candidacy and his personality," Hagen said.

The Temple/Inquirer Poll asked respondents to rate their feelings toward candidates for Senate and governor on a scale of zero to 10.

Twenty-four percent of likely voters gave Santorum a zero, far more than any other candidate. Democrats were the most hostile, but 51 percent of independents rated Santorum below 5 - and 26 percent of these voters gave him a zero.
A quarter of those polled gave him a zero. Half the independents see him negatively and a quarter of the independents also gave him a zero.

Not too many people like Senator Man-on-Dog.

Rick Santorum - ten points down.


Anonymous said...

The Keystone Poll has it at 5 points among likely voters.

Keystone Poll

Shawn said...

That poll might be accurate. Or it might not be. Polling is as much art as science. Still, I imagine the Casey campaign's still worried about how much ground Santorum's making up with his latest ad blitz. It'll be interesting to see how the polls start to track in October when Casey starts his push (at least I assume that's what his plan is) on T.V. and radio.

In the end, this is gonna be a tight race and I have a feeling that Santorum's campaign is just fine with that.