November 5, 2007

Delano's take on tomorrow

In addition to his KDKA TV report, Jon Delano riffs on the mayoral race on his Delano's Den blog (expectations game, etc.).

For the record, I expect DeSantis to do well but not win.

[sigh]

Hey, Pittsburgh! Why don't you surprise me?
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2 comments:

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  2. DeSantis could win. He needs to carry 95% of the Republican vote, which he probably will. And he needs to get 33% of the Democratic vote, while splitting unaffiliated voters. (Or 60/40 independents and only 20% of Democrats). That is within the realm of possibility now. Luke has alienated enough factions within the Democratic Party that it's conceivable that 33% of his own party could vote against him.

    To refresh Luke has alienated:
    Women
    The LGBT Community
    A large portion of the African American Community
    The police union
    The Teamsters
    Arguably the environmental community.

    Granted that's not a majority of the Democratic coalition. But it might be 33% of the party, and probably is 20% of the party. If it is, then Luke is in trouble. Under that scenario, the best he can do is a Murphy-like margin of victory.

    It's an open question: can you alienate your entire base and still win an election in a one-party town? It'll be answered by this time tomorrow night.

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