December 4, 2007

Jack Kelly and the NIE

Now that we've seen, via a recently released National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), that the nation's intelligence community believes:

  • With "high confidence" that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in the fall of 2003 (the report notes that they define the program as the "nuclear weapon design and weaponization work and covert uranium conversion-related and uranium enrichment-related work" not the civil work on uranium enrichment.
  • With "moderate confidence" that Iran has not restarted the program as of mid-2007.
  • With "moderate to high" confidence, that Iran does NOT have a nuclear weapon.
And so on. While not ruling out the possibility of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon (or fissionable material), they estimate that it would take years for Iran to produce enough weapons grade uranium for a bomb. As such:
We judge with high confidence that Iran will not be technically capable of producing
and reprocessing enough plutonium for a weapon before about 2015.
With all that now in the news-aether, what should we make of my friend Jack Kelly's pronouncements on the state of Iran's nuclear capabilities?

September 30, 2007:

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had a highly successful visit to New York last week, thanks chiefly to Columbia University President Lee Bollinger.

The diminutive despot with the big smirk heads a repressive regime which promotes terrorism. Sophisticated IEDs supplied by Iran are the principal cause of U.S. casualties in Iraq. Mr. Ahmadinejad has called repeatedly for the obliteration of Israel and is seeking nuclear weapons to make this possible.

July 15, 200o7:
Poor Israeli performance in the war with Hezbollah last summer has inspired confidence the Jewish state can be beaten militarily. Fear in Tehran that its nuclear weapons program could trigger economic sanctions from the United Nations or air strikes from the United States makes the mullahs there more inclined to roll the dice.
December 17, 2006:
We've also seen how ineffective the United Nations has been at preventing outlaw regimes such as North Korea and Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
August 20, 2006:
Whether Israel's tactical gains matter more than Hezbollah's PR gains depends on how soon the inevitable confrontation over Iran's nuclear program takes place. "Because Iran, in conventional terms, is largely defenseless against an American bombing campaign, Iran's first objective will be to draw Israel into the conflict," wrote Noah Pollack in National Review Online. "The way Iran would drag Israel into the war and dramatically complicate the U.S. mission would be through Hezbollah."
I'm not saying that J-Kel should have known what was in the NIE when he wrote any of these statements but now that the NIE has been released and has shown what he wrote to be, well, less than accurate, when will we see Jack Kelly pointing out that he was incorrect about Iran's now dormant nuclear weapons program?

4 comments:

  1. [W]hen will we see Jack Kelly pointing out that he was incorrect about Iran's now dormant nuclear weapons program?

    When pigs fly.

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  2. John K. says: LOL LOL LOL LMAO, this NIE agrees with the liberal line so it has to be true. Man can you lefties cherry pick facts. This is so funny it is now predictable. LMAO at how you lefties buy into this and then expect someone else to admit they are wrong.

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  3. A right-winger's gonna caterwaul about cherry-picking facts?!? I..., ...

    I think this how they win sometimes. Being obtuse to the point where one cannot help but be overcome by the sheer level of thier willful ignorance.

    I salute both of you for wading into this fever swamp of idiocy. God knows, I don't have patience for it.

    - Shawn

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  4. John K. says: Look at this. Liberals acknowledging that Iran had the intent to make nuclear weapons. That sure is a change of heart for the left. Bush is the man! His foreign policy stopped those loons in Iran from blowing Israel off the map and without a shot being fired. He is the MAN!

    ReplyDelete