Democracy Has Prevailed.

March 25, 2009

Specter's Toomey Problem

Word is out that on his radio show today KDKA's Fred Honsberger will be discussing Senator Arlen Specter's bad news:

A new poll shows Senator Arlen Specter trailing a former congressman who almost beat him in the 2004 Republican primary.

The statewide poll by Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University showed Pat Toomey would win by 14 percentage points in a one-on-one match against Specter if next year's primary were held today.

The poll also found three out of four Republicans don't know enough about Toomey to form an opinion about him.

As I am always looking to help out my friend Fred Honsberger, here's some more info on that poll. Things do indeed look bad for Specter when compared to Toomey:
Apparently paying a political price for his support of President Barack Obama's Stimulus Plan, longtime Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter trails former Congressman Pat Toomey 41 - 27 percent in a Republican primary for the 2010 Senate race, with 28 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
However, when looking at the larger picture (and keeping in mind it's still very early) things get complicated. Specter's got a 45/31 favorable/unfavorable rating. He's eking out a 6 point lead among independents (41/35 favorable/unfavorable) and a whopping 46 point lead (60/16 favorable/unfavorable) among Democrats. Then there's this:
Voters approve 52 - 33 percent of the job Specter is doing, with a 71 - 16 percent positive score from Democrats and a 41 - 37 percent boost from independent voters, off-setting a 52 - 36 percent disapproval from Republicans.
And this:
If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today, 31 percent of voters say they would vote for Specter while 33 percent say they would vote for an unnamed Democratic challenger, with 35 percent undecided.
What does all this mean?
"Pennsylvania Republicans are so unhappy with Sen. Specter's vote for President Barack Obama's Stimulus Package and so-called pork barrel spending that they are voting for a former Congressman they hardly know," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
It also means that the state Republican Party (a party far smaller than it was only a few years ago, by the way) are upset enough with the popular Republican in the race who has a good shot at re-election that they're gazing fondly at a hardline conservative candidate who has none.

Santorum was rejected by this state by a margin of 18 points. What makes the state GOP think that another hardline conservative will do any better?


Bram Reichbaum said...

Specter will win, but it'll be a lot of fun.

Dayvoe said...

I'm not so sure. Toomey is far more popular among the hard-core conservatives. And owing to the recent shifts in the GOP, the hard-cores have more power in a smaller party.

But I could be wrong.

In either case, it will be fun to watch!

Social Justice NPC Anti-Paladin™ said...

Santorum was rejected by this state by a margin of 18 points. What makes the state GOP think that another hardline conservative will do any better?
Santorum ran against a pro-gun and pro-life Democrat not a "hardline" liberal that Dave would like.
The kind of Democrat that the nutroots wish to get rid of.

Remember that Specter no longer has the support of a incumbent Senator and President backing him up.

BTW, Didn't Dave support Joe Hoeffel for Specter's last election.

Dayvoe said...


Nice try but no.

Social Justice NPC Anti-Paladin™ said...

Why did you support Specter? I remember Lynn Cullen railing against him.
Can't be his claim that Roe v. Wade is a "superprecedent".
That occurred after the election.

Arlen Specter makes up the term "superprecedent" ...

I only voted for Specter because Joe Hoeffel got the endorsement of the Brady center

Dayvoe said...

Nice try.

I didn't support either.

Schmuck Shitrock said...

Nice try, Davvoe? To my knowledge, Mein Heir has never even attempted a nice try on this blog, nor his own.

He does make a point, though. Santorum lost to a Bush-supporting Republican. Still, Toomey's chance is equivalent to that of a small bird perched on the nose of Dick Cheney's best friend.