This Can't Be Good News for Rick Santorum

A month or so ago, the P-G reported that Lil Ricky was "betting" on Immigration as a campaign issue:

In a meeting one night last week at a Monroeville fire hall, Sen. Rick Santorum bemoaned the threat of illegal immigration even though this region, by his own analysis, has remarkably little immigration of any kind.

But the embattled incumbent was betting that his audience contained voters who were nonetheless agitated over immigration, and that the state of Pennsylvania has lots more like them. In that, the Republican was following an issues path becoming increasingly well worn by politicians across the country.

"I don't know of [another] issue that I've gotten more feedback [on] in a short amount of time,'' Mr. Santorum said.

So he's been pounding this issue for at least a month, right? Heck, his "Candles" ad the one with this text:

My father immigrated here from Italy with my grandfather who worked thirty years in the coal mines of Western Pennsylvania. They came here with dreams of a better life for their family. Unfortunately today, some enter our country with more sinister intentions.

dates way back to June 23 (according to Rick's own website). The ad that Ricky's website summarizes as:

Bobby Casey supports amnesty and special treatment for illegals; Sen. Santorum's on our side.

Dates back to June 14 (sorry - Ricky hasn't had time to post a transcript for the ad).

But has any of this had any effect on the poll numbers?

Not much at all. The latest from Rasmussen:

Democratic challenger Bob Casey, Jr. is maintaining a double-digit advantage over Senator Rick Santorum, leading 50% to 39% (see crosstabs).

The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll of Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race shows a narrowing of the gap since June—from fifteen to eleven percentage points. But, considering the stability of this contest, the incumbent can't really say he is turning a corner.

Fifteen to eleven in a stable contest. How long do you think it'll take Rick and Fred Honsberger to state that this four point narrowing does represent "turning the corner" - my guess is about a week. Rick's not really known for being honest about his news coverage.

Rasmussen explains the stability:

In five of our last seven surveys, Casey's support has ranged narrowly between 50% and 52%. One exception lies above that range, the other below. Santorum's pattern is similar: between 36% and 39% in five of seven surveys—again, with one exception above and one below that range.

Some more bad news for Senator Man on Dog:

Santorum is viewed favorably by 44%, unfavorably by 50%; 30% view him "very" unfavorably. He is popular enough with his base, with 76% of Republicans viewing him favorably, 48% "very favorably" (numbers that have been increasing). But 47% percent of Democrats view him "very unfavorably." And Santorum barely scrapes up a 32% favorable rating from unaffiliated voters, the group he must win over to squeak through. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of unaffilateds and 61% of moderates view him unfavorably.

Casey is viewed favorably by 66% of all voters. That figure includes 57% of unaffiliated voters and 71% of moderates. But relatively few regarding him "very" favorably, confirming the perception that the election is largely a referendum on Santorum. [emphasis added]

It's looking (at this point at least) like Ricky's immigration bet was a losing one, but it's all ok because Rick Santorum found Iraq's WMD.

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