DeSantis could win. He needs to carry 95% of the Republican vote, which he probably will. And he needs to get 33% of the Democratic vote, while splitting unaffiliated voters. (Or 60/40 independents and only 20% of Democrats). That is within the realm of possibility now. Luke has alienated enough factions within the Democratic Party that it's conceivable that 33% of his own party could vote against him.
To refresh Luke has alienated: Women The LGBT Community A large portion of the African American Community The police union The Teamsters Arguably the environmental community.
Granted that's not a majority of the Democratic coalition. But it might be 33% of the party, and probably is 20% of the party. If it is, then Luke is in trouble. Under that scenario, the best he can do is a Murphy-like margin of victory.
It's an open question: can you alienate your entire base and still win an election in a one-party town? It'll be answered by this time tomorrow night.
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ReplyDeleteDeSantis could win. He needs to carry 95% of the Republican vote, which he probably will. And he needs to get 33% of the Democratic vote, while splitting unaffiliated voters. (Or 60/40 independents and only 20% of Democrats). That is within the realm of possibility now. Luke has alienated enough factions within the Democratic Party that it's conceivable that 33% of his own party could vote against him.
ReplyDeleteTo refresh Luke has alienated:
Women
The LGBT Community
A large portion of the African American Community
The police union
The Teamsters
Arguably the environmental community.
Granted that's not a majority of the Democratic coalition. But it might be 33% of the party, and probably is 20% of the party. If it is, then Luke is in trouble. Under that scenario, the best he can do is a Murphy-like margin of victory.
It's an open question: can you alienate your entire base and still win an election in a one-party town? It'll be answered by this time tomorrow night.