October 16, 2006

Weaving some Santorum Threads

From Slate.com. Jesse Stanchak has a "media round-up" type piece that begins with this:
The New York Times leads with the GOP's decision to refocus campaign resources from Sen. Mike DeWine, R-Ohio, to Senate races with rosier prospects, leaving DeWine to fend for himself and, in the paper's view, effectively conceding the seat.
Interesting. But the good stuff happens further down the page. Take a look:
The LAT off-leads with a piece on the efforts of social conservatives to save Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa. in the November elections. The NYT's lead story depicted Santorum's seat as one the GOP is prepared to lose and despite its misleading slug, ("GOP on a Mission to Save Santorum") the LAT story is about a grass-roots effort to aid the ailing Senator, not a high-level move to bolster the campaign.
Details! I wanna see details!

Here's the NYTimes article Stanchak mentions. And what it says:
National Republicans are no longer running advertisements in three districts where they once thought they had a chance to take over Democratic-held seats — in South Carolina, West Virginia and Ohio — as well as a district in Arizona now held by a Republican. The party has not broadcast any advertising in four days on behalf of Representative Chris Chocola, one of three Indiana Republicans who polls suggest are headed for defeat, though Republican officials said that does not mean they have written off Mr. Chocola’s seat.

Even before this development, Republicans had been bracing for the defeat of three sitting Republican senators: Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Conrad Burns of Montana and Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, based on polling. [emphasis added]
Bracing for the defeat of Rick Santorum.

There's a lot of confusing stuff floating around. Even Santorum's favorite reporter, Brett Lieberman, had a piece in the Patriot-News that began with this:
National Republican leaders remain hopeful that U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum can turn around his struggling campaign, but they might have already written off the Pennsylvania race to Democrat Robert P. Casey Jr., if their checkbooks are any indication.

Neither the National Republican Committee nor the National Republican Senatorial Committee has reserved time at Pennsylvania television stations for "independent expenditure" ads supporting Santorum, R-Pa. Neither committee has spent any money on such ads for Santorum, the GOP's No. 3 leader in the Senate.
It's not that cut and dry, though. Rick's still got a ton of money.
A political analyst speculated that the national committee's lack of spending in the Pennsylvania Senate race reflects a desire to concentrate on other critical contests, and recognition that Santorum's campaign has raised a great deal of money.

"The truth probably rests a little with both sides," said Chris Borick, a political scientist at Muhlenberg College in Allentown.

"I would be shocked if the strategists in the party are writing off the campaign," he said.
Ok. So how much does Senator Man-on-Dog have?
Despite trailing in polls, Santorum has raised more than $20 million and has enjoyed a 2-1 cash advantage over Casey.
That's a lot of money.

What are the grassroots doing to help out Lil Ricky? Here's the article mentioned at Slate.com. I think the point from Slate.com is well taken. None of the "help" described in the article is coming from the RNC. By the way the piece, by Janet Hook, sums up the race very nicely:
If 2006 turns into the electoral romp for Democrats that many analysts now are predicting, a loss by Santorum would be a signifier of the end of that Republican revolution.

If Democrats are unable to defeat Santorum, they are unlikely to win a majority in the Senate, which Republicans control 55 to 45.
Just so you know.

The article points out that Rick's getting help from Paul Weyrick, an organization called "Let Freedom Ring" (a 501 (c)(4) non-profit organization), the American Family Association of Pennsylvania. And, the Pennsylvania Pastors Network is an organization name to keep an eye out for.
Hanna's group has set up a network of conservative pastors around the state to mobilize churchgoing voters. Although it cannot by law endorse a candidate, the Pastors Network of Pennsylvania has enlisted nearly 1,000 pastors in voter-registration and get-out-the vote drives.

"I think this race is drawing very, very close," said Hanna. "The deciding factor may be which set of supporters is more motivated to turn out."
Of course they can't endorse a particular candidate. So the guy who said this:
"I think it's important for people across the country to recognize how important it is not only to pay attention but to get engaged in this race, whatever way they can," said Colin Hanna, head of Let Freedom Ring, a conservative group based in Pennsylvania. "If Rick Santorum were to lose, it would be cited as a turning point in the social conservative movement."
Forms a group of similarly minded pastors to get out the vote. Who do you think they're pulling for?

So to sum up. Rick's got a ton of money, though he's not getting much (if any) from the RNC. Republican bigwigs are "bracing" for Santorum's defeat and religious conservatives from around the country are going to be working hard to defend him in order to supprt the "social conservative movement."

Do I have that right?

5 comments:

  1. Ewww...Wouldn't it be very, very messy to do what your headline says?

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  2. Maria;

    The metaphor I THOUGHT I was using wasn't nearly so scatological.

    But now that you've burped it up, all I can say is:

    EWWWWWWWWWWWWW!

    :-)

    The Other Political Junkie

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  3. Yeah, think about it. The RNC has got to be a little disturbed that Santorum has been trailing in the polls literally since Casey announced. There has been some movement, but Santorum shows no signs of being able to turn this around. Coupled with the apparent Lynn Swann fiasco, the RNC must be getting fairly annoyed with Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, it might be nice if Casey could make one or two high profile campaign stops with Altmire, wouldn't it?

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  4. I second the Casey/Altmire idea. Of course, I doubt that'll happen on the flip side. ;)

    Still, I ain't sayin' Santorum's out. He'll work his a** off these final three weeks and I don't think Republican turnout's gonna be as low as many think.

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  5. To me it seems like Santorum just wants to go down swingin'. This is a back against the wall, last chance, silver bullet type of thing.

    When your unfavorables outnumber your favorables and you can't break 40 -- as an incumbent -- you're gonna lose.

    ReplyDelete