December 9, 2007

Jack Kelly Sunday

Jack Kelly...tackles the...NIE.

In today's P-G.

And, as usual, he spins and misdirects. He also completely misses the point.

But before we try to deconstruct J-Kel yet again, let's just take a look at how the NIE describes its own construction (if only to head off the inevitable righwing talking point that it was written by 3 disgruntled former State Department officials). Here it is, page 3 of the estimate:

National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) are the Intelligence Community’s (IC) most authoritative written judgments on national security issues and designed to help US civilian and military leaders develop policies to protect US national security interests. NIEs usually provide information on the current state of play but are primarily “estimative”—that is, they make judgments about the likely course of future events and identify the implications for US policy.

The NIEs are typically requested by senior civilian and military policymakers, Congressional leaders and at times are initiated by the National Intelligence Council (NIC). Before a NIE is drafted, the relevant NIO is responsible for producing a concept paper or terms of reference (TOR) and circulates it throughout the Intelligence Community for comment. The TOR defines the key estimative questions, determines drafting responsibilities, and sets the drafting and publication schedule. One or more IC analysts are usually assigned to produce the initial text. The NIC then meets to critique the draft before it is circulated to the broader IC. Representatives from the relevant IC agencies meet to hone and coordinate line-by-line the full text of the NIE. Working with their Agencies, reps also assign the level of confidence they have in each key judgment. IC reps discuss the quality of sources with collectors, and the National Clandestine Service vets the sources used to ensure the draft does not include any that have been recalled or otherwise seriously questioned.

All NIEs are reviewed by National Intelligence Board, which is chaired by the DNI and is composed of the heads of relevant IC agencies. Once approved by the NIB, NIEs are briefed to the President and senior policymakers. The whole process of producing NIEs normally takes at least several months.

Ok now that that's done, let's get down to business. Here's how Commando Kelly begins:

Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and probably won't be able to build a bomb before 2015 if it does restart it, a new National Intelligence Estimate has concluded. That's very good news ... if it's true.

But that's a big if. The NIE is a SWAG (Scientific Wild-Assed Guess), not a statement of proven fact. It's a SWAG from an intelligence community whose predictive record about the Middle East has been poor. It's a SWAG that's challenged by Israeli intelligence, whose predictive history is much better. And it's a SWAG that is diametrically opposed to the last SWAG the intelligence community issued on Iran's nuclear program.

Not that big, if you read how the thing was put together. Jack is relying on the rhetorical device that goes something like this: they were wrong before so why should we believe them now? Turns out that the answer to that has been written into the current NIE.
The NIC has undertaken a number of steps to improve the NIE process under the DNI. These steps are in accordance with the goals and recommendations set out in the SSCI and WMD Commission reports and the 2004 Intelligence Reform and Prevention of Terrorism Act. Most notably, over the last year and a half, the IC has:
  • Created new procedures to integrate formal reviews of source reporting and technical judgments. The Directors of the National Clandestine Service, NSA, NGA, and DIA and the Assistant Secretary/INR are now required to submit formal assessments that highlight the strengths, weaknesses, and overall credibility of their sources used in developing the critical judgments of the NIE.
  • Applied more rigorous standards. A textbox is incorporated into all NIEs that explains what we mean by such terms as “we judge” and that clarifies the difference between judgments of likelihood and confidence levels. We have made a concerted effort to not only highlight differences among agencies but to explain the reasons for such differences and to prominently display them in the Key Judgments.

We've written on this before, but it might be a good idea to go over this again. How (or at least why) did they change their minds on this?

Here's something (again) from the Washington Post:

A pivotal moment occurred in early summer 2005, when President Bush discussed the new Iran NIE with advisers during a routine intelligence briefing. Why, he asked, was it so hard to get information about Iran's nuclear program?

The exchange, described by a senior U.S. official who witnessed it, helped instigate the intelligence community's most aggressive attempt to penetrate Iran's highly secretive nuclear program. Over the coming months, the CIA established a new Iran Operations Division that brought analysts and clandestine collectors together to search for hard evidence.

Communications intercepts of Iranian nuclear officials and a stolen Iranian laptop containing diagrams related to the development of a nuclear warhead for missiles both yielded valuable evidence about Iran's nuclear past as well as its decision in 2003 to suspend the weapons side of its program.

But there was no "eureka" moment, according to senior officials who helped supervise the collection efforts. The surge in intelligence-gathering helped convince analysts that Iran had made a "course correction" in 2003, halting the weapons work while proceeding with the civilian nuclear energy program.

The result, ironically, was a new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran that reached conclusions far different from what many intelligence officials expected.

So here we have the President asking why it was so hard to get good evidence on the Iranian nuclear program and that spurred on the Intelligence community to take a closer look at the data at hand. When they looked harder, they reassessed what they saw. The result was the latest NIE. And DNI McConnell had a different methodology in place as well. Again, from the Washington Post:

Former and current intelligence officials say the new NIE reflects new analytical methods ordered by McConnell -- who took the DNI job in January -- and his deputies, including Thomas Fingar, a former head of the State Department's intelligence agency, and Donald M. Kerr, a former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory and an expert on nuclear weapons technology.

Besides requiring greater transparency about the sources of intelligence, McConnell and his colleagues have compelled analysts working on major estimates to challenge existing assumptions when new information does not fit, according to former and current U.S. officials familiar with the policies.

Then there's this from the New York Times:
American intelligence agencies reversed their view about the status of Iran’s nuclear weapons program after they obtained notes last summer from the deliberations of Iranian military officials involved in the weapons development program, senior intelligence and government officials said on Wednesday.

So. Different data, different methology, why shouldn't there be a different conclusion? Jack, then (kinda) pushes the "disinformation" button only to (kinda) slap it away a paragraph later.

But what if the notes were disinformation planted to mislead us? It was uncorroborated statements which proved to be false from an Iraqi defector (Curveball) which were chiefly responsible for the intelligence community's apparently erroneous conclusions about Saddam's weapons of mass destruction.

The notes and deliberations were corroborated by other intelligence, including intercepted telephone conversations among Iranian officials, sources told The New York Times.

Ah, Curveball. The gift that keeps on giving. Too bad that Curveball (aka Rafid Ahmed Alwan) wasn't a direct intelligence source for the US. He was controlled by the Germans who did not permit US Intelligence any access to him. Before dubya's war, the head of German Intelligence even tried to warn off US Intelligence about him. Calling him "crazy" and a "waste of time." But this administration needed a reason to go to war and Curveball gave it to them. He was a part of the Administration's lies leading up to the war.

But back to whether the NIE was based on another "Curveball." This is how the New York Times described it:

But they said that the Central Intelligence Agency and other agencies had organized a “red team” to determine if the new information might have been part of an elaborate disinformation campaign mounted by Iran to derail the effort to impose sanctions against it.

In the end, American intelligence officials rejected that theory, though they were challenged to defend that conclusion in a meeting two weeks ago in the White House situation room, in which the notes and deliberations were described to the most senior members of President Bush’s national security team, including Vice President Dick Cheney.

“It was a pretty vivid exchange,” said one participant in the conversation.

The officials said they were confident that the notes confirmed the existence, up to 2003, of a weapons programs that American officials first learned about from a laptop computer, belonging to an Iranian engineer, that came into the hands of the C.I.A. in 2004.

No wonder Jack boiled down that meeting (with its "vivid exchange") to one bland sentence. It shows that Dick Cheney knew about the NIE by the third week of November.

Which leads me to the point that Jack Kelly, former National Security Correspondent to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette insisted on missing in his entire column.

The story is not only about the NIE, but about when the highest levels of the Administration knew about it. They've known for months what it said and yet continued to warn (as they did on October 17) about Iran, nuclear weapons, and World War III. As Scott Horton wrote about the timing of the release of the NIE and whether week-old intelligence was at the heart of it at Harpers:
Is this true? That will be a subject for further study. But one highly reliable intelligence community source I consulted immediately after Hadley spoke answered my question this way: “This is absolutely absurd. The NIE has been in substantially the form in which it was finally submitted for more than six months. The White House, and particularly Vice President Cheney, used every trick in the book to stop it from being finalized and issued. There was no last minute breakthrough that caused the issuance of the assessment.”
That, Jack, was the point of all this. Another lie from this Administration that would lead to more needless death and destruction. This time, though, they got caught before anyone got hurt.

35 comments:

  1. Jack Kelly and his compatriots in the 20-something percent will never be persuaded by fact, logic, or reason. Don't take my word for it, ask the Laughing Chickenhawk, Mein Heir, Master Lie, or Mr. Monotheist. Bush can do no wrong and he can never steal enough to change their minds.

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  2. What's there to say about the NIE...well, nieve, wrong, and politics are the first words that come to mind. Here in Israel, we aren't buying into this. Your country is falling apart because of political turmoil between two sides that despise each other. This whole stupid NIE report is completely and totally rooted in politics. The Mossad, our intelligence agency here in Israel, has put together a report contradicting what the "all knowing" NIE concludes. You can read about it at www.jpost.com. This is a very serious threat we're facing and we should be uniting over it, not dividing. You guys gripe about the Iraqi government failing to reconcile politically, yet your own country is falling apart in much the same way. I don't know why us Israelis are able to see this report for what it is--a lie--yet you Americans want to believe its true. Iran is evil, pure and simple. What else would you call a country that supplied 4,000 rockets to Hezbollah to fire on our cities? They are also funding Hamas and killing American soldiers in Iraq. Wake up, people...and hurry.

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  3. Very well said, Moses. It's good to see there's someone out there who isn't believing what he's being told by this ridiculous report.

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  4. So, Moses, you're one of those Israelis who find new terrorists under their beds every night -- or if you don't find any, you go out and make some more. Congratulations on convincing our Warmonger in Chief to adopt the philosophy that has failed so convincingly in your country for 60 years.

    Your characterization of the NIE is...well, actually it's irrelevant, isn't it?, in addition to being risable. It's kind of funny that you attribute it to politics, having been accepted even by the most bloodthirsty president in the history of our country, having been generated by Bush's own agents, and having been fought tooth and nail by Cheney and his minions in an attempt to prevent its public release. (It's also funny that you don't bother looking up the correct spelling of naive, but that's a whole 'nother post.)

    What the NIE didn't say, BTW, was that we are no longer sure that Iran even had a nuclear, pardon me I meant nookyuler weapons program going PRIOR TO 2003.

    There is only one rogue nation in the ME with nukes at the moment -- yours. It would certainly twist your own extreme right-wingers' panties into a bunch if one of your neighbors had one nuke to offset the dozens or hundreds that Israel has, wouldn't it?

    As for the political turmoil here, you are correct. It has been fomented by the same brand of right-wing extremists that build walls in Israel to isolate and punish innocent Israeli civilians who happen not to be Jewish. If the divide is exacerbated much more in America, it will begin to rival the low-grade civil war you have managed to control with such tactics as bulldozing the homes of innocent Palestinians in Israel for the past half-century. In fact, we already see dissidence being met by our corrupt government with the same kind of blind, naked brutality and torture that is commonly-accepted practice in your Promised Land.

    You ask what I would call people who supply weapons to your enemies? I would call them your enemies. In America's current political climate, that makes them our enemies as well. Bush's answer to that is to invade, seeing how that strategy worked so well in Iraq.

    Meanwhile, may I ask why Israel doesn't invade? You have the best equipped army in the ME. It's your country's security that's at risk. It's your intelligence that says Iran is developing the nukes. Go for it, Tzahal. You guys did such a wonderful job in Lebanon last year.

    Wake up yourself, Moses, and soon. And say "hi" to Aaron for me.

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  5. Well, then, I suppose I'll officially make this an international forum and give the Australian point of view on this. Moses made a good point when he said that the political infighting within your country is tearing it apart...and now it has spilled into the great nation of Australia and resulted in the downfall of the greatest leader the world as ever seen, prime minister John Howard. If you keep up the bloody political divide and keep giving that moronic nit Al Gore a platform, who knows what will happen. The global warming religion is sweeping across Australia and it all came from the washed-up, unemployable idiot Gore. At my zoo, we encourage enviromental protection, but not the kind Al preaches. His global warming crap stands in the way of things that really matter...like protecting sharks and crocodiles. I think its time for him to rack off and for you guys to become the UNITED states of America again...

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  6. O. M. G.
    Moses is the only "Jewish" name you could think of? That's priceless.

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  7. Smitty,

    Mah Nishmah...

    Just give me a minute to stop laughing here.

    How does that kool-aid taste?

    After that little crapstorm you just upheaved, I'm not sure what to say. I thought about suggesting you become a speech writer for David Duke or some kind of Aryan Union or something, but I don't want to end up screaming an all-out rant like you just did.

    Your analysis is obviously guided by an ideology and not by logic or reason. Someone who suggests Iran can have a nuke because Israel has them obviously knows very little about the Middle East, Iran or Israel. For one thing, Israel is not threatening to wipe any other countries off the map. We do not fund and arm terrorists, and we're not run by a bloody theocracy hellbent on imposing its extremist agenda on everyone it can clamp down on with its iron fists.

    Do some research into this (and I don't mean reading the newest posts on the daily kos or some other liberal blog). We Israelis want peace and have given up concession after concession but the extremists just don't seem to care.

    you've definetely entertained me this morning though...I thank you for that.

    Kol Tuv

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  8. Pgh suburban guy says:
    Schmuck please!

    Your rambling rants are frightening. How could anyone who claims intelligence write such drivel?
    You have a distinct talent for arguing for argument sake and not attempting to digest the comments of others. Your hatred prevents you from making any real discourse. Please just try. You seem like a decent guy but you are so bitter you make a good example of the political divide that is the REAL problem in our country.

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  9. See Schmuck, violent personal attacks get us nowhere, which is what I have been saying all along. Playing the role of a far-left internet character asassin will not accomplish the goals your movement is hoping for. It is very scary when you attack people like me, moses, or john in such an ugly way. I prefer to have political debates where at the end of the day I can say to my opponent "you know you made a good point", even though I don't generally agree with them. That's something I do when I have a legitimate debate with my liberal friends and relatives. You definitely need to take a step back and relax for a minute...I look back at my earlier posts and I've realized when I debate with you, I adopt the same extremist talking points and I don't like that, it makes me forget why I got into politics and journalism in the first place. The bottom line is we should still be able to respect each other even though we have opposing viewpoints.

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  10. Pittsburgh Suburban Guy: I thank you for your comments, and will keep them in mind the next time I find myself in need of criticism. So you subscribe to the same philosophy as the Dems in Congress, eh? "Don't be mean to them when they insult us. You might make them mad, and they'll say more nasty things about us."

    I'm afraid I'm quite fed up with that MO, despite the fact that it has been such a winning tactic for liberals ever since Hubert Humphrey died.

    I didn't create the divide you're talking about, I -- and you, if you had the brain to recognize it -- am a victim of it. I also didn't make the rules about how this game is played. The Swift Boaters and the Roves, and the "fuck you" Cheneys took care of that. I am reacting in kind to these idiots who would bury you and the rest of the planet in radioactive waste given fifteen percent of a chance...in fact, ten percent, because they would steal the other five percent.

    So, do me a favor. The next time you feel the need to expunge your soul of advice or express your fear of me, do one of two things:

    1)Point out where I'm wrong. I'm eager to learn where I'm wrong. Please don't do it the way the Wingnuts do it, though. Instead of repeating the fevered ramblings of Rush Limbaugh, give me at least one fact or one logical conclusion based on a fact. Failing that, please

    2) Do what the Wingnuts seem unable to do. Grab a flashlight and a three-way mirror and see if you can locate your own ass. Feel free to use both hands, if necessary.

    You're welcome.

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  11. Wow! Atacks by neocon wingnuts from countries far away.
    Maybe you 'foreigners' should try taking care of yourselves and stop depending on the US to take care of things for you.
    If there is fighting in Israel then maybe you move. I for one would not raise my family in the middle of a bloody war zone.
    And Australia? Take care of your own 'sharks and crocodiles'. Your idiotic attempt to refute global warming by attacking Al Gore shows your IQ.

    Bottom line, Bush lied us into this war and we need to get out of Iraq.
    We need to finish the war in Afgahnistan and march into Pakistan to put Bin Laden's head on stick.

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  12. Moses, I assume the person you were addressing as "Smitty" was I. That's fine. You call me Smitty and I'll call you Moosie.

    I am pleased to have given you a moment or two of comic relief in your strenuous day full of hatred. I'm certain you needed it. However, I'm afraid that neither David Duke nor the Aryan Union would care much for my prose, them being on your (you know, the far, far right)side and all.

    Three "thoughts" (I hope you don't mind the characterization) in your post fairly drip irony. I refer to your hilarious quip about my being ideology bound (whose? I ask, vainly seeking a straight answer), Israel not threatening to wipe any other country off the map (Palestine, Palestine...what ever happened to Palestine?) and not being run by a bloody theocracy. Good ones. And you think I amuse you?

    I should do research, huh? Hundreds of technical experts submit a report but I should ask YOU for advice on how to do research? Puh-leese.

    Just one more thing before I let you get back to torturing people (I know, I know, Palestinians aren't actually people. It's just a figure of speech): In America, when we accuse someone of saying something they didn't say so that we can refute what they didn't say, we call that a "strawman." It's considered a last-resort kind of tactic, one that you need to be pretty dishonest to use, but handy when you've been made a fool of and want to save face. You know what I mean? For example, your accusation that I think Iran should have a nuke? Like that.

    Someday, one of you Wingnuts will actually respond to a point I make, and peace will break out all over the world or something. Oh well, at least you pretend to have something of substance to discuss, unlike...

    Shalom aleichem, and have a pleasant day.

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  13. Smitty...

    Being Jewish, do you have any idea how it feels to be compared to nazis?

    Would you consider yourself a Jew hater?

    One more point I'd like to make...before the Anapolis peace conference, I visited a mosque and prayed with some palestinian friends of mine for the conference to suceed. Don't even try to say that I want harm done to the Palestinian people (ie "going back to torturing people). Your sick comments are almost as insane as the threats of destruction from Meshaal and Hanieyh. By the way, do you consider Hamas to be a legitimate force for good in the world? I bet you do.

    Also, do you remember what David Duke did last year? He embraced Ahmadinejad at the Holocaust denying conference. Yep...it looks like the fascist right and the American far-left have one thing in common...hating Israel.

    Try not to be so ignorant...open up a little

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  14. That Schmuck guy seems like a scary man

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  15. Gotta give you credit for chutzpah, Moosie. YOU bring up Nazis, then accuse me of comparing you to them. This is strawman tactics to a "T." I really wouldn't have the nerve to lie so transparently. To answer your question directly: Yes, I have a very good idea of what it feels like to be compared to Nazis. You did it to me in your first reply to me.

    Ignorant am I, Moosie? Please explain how it is that I exhibit ignorance when it is you who have failed to answer a single factual point I raised? It would seem that you have so little knowledge of circumstances in you own back yard that you are unable to refute a single fact in my argument. Or perhaps you do understand the reality but choose to ignore it. In my country we have a word for that.

    And stop trying to make ME the topic. If you want to debate Israel's atrocious behavior under right-wing maniacs, I seem to be far better prepared to do so than you are; but my character and my prejudices are quite beside the point.

    Is Hamas a force for good in the world? Well, they feed, educate, and medically treat the people that the Israeli government persecutes, but they also support attacks on civilians. I guess I'd say they come out morally about even with the current government in Jerusalem. Both do much good and much evil, but the government of Israel has the United States and all its weapons behind it, so they're better at spreading misery. Damn good a building walls, too.

    Another nice touch in your post by the way. "Some of my best friends are Palestinians." Where have we heard that one before?

    Well, Moosie, it's time for bed. Stay warm today in your settlement. Boker tov, erev tov, whatever. Tihie be cesher.

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  16. That Schmuck guy seems like a scary man

    I speak no Urdu or Hindi at all, so I certainly can't criticize your English. But either you are confusing the word "scary" with "sensible," or perhaps you meant to substitute the word "Musharraf" for "Schmuck." Come to think of it, it would be sensible for you to say, "That Musharraf guy seems like a Schmuck."

    Don't thank me, it was my pleasure.

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  17. John K. says: I can never figure what the left uses for facts. 20%? NBC and Olbermouth will be airing ads thanking the troops, after public pressure brought to bear by Gingrich and Fox News. If only 20% actually believe Bush than that there would have been no public pressure to force NBC and Olbermouth to do anything which helps the right. I guess shitrock lives up to his name. Just make it up and use offensive terms to defame anyone who disagrees.

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  18. Well said throughout, Schmuck. Of course you will be compared to David Duke or the Aryan nation if you dare criticize Israel. That isn't allowed, don't you know.

    I criticize the U.S. government's actions, does that mean I hate everybody in this country? No. You know, it is possible to criticize the political actions of the Israeli government without being anti-semitic, despite the tired attempts to suggest otherwise.

    And, yes, it would be nice to see some facts to refute your points, but that ain't gonna happen. Never does. That would be LOGICAL, you see, but logic and facts and truth died a long time ago.

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  19. So I gather the NIE simply said that Iran had in fact stopped their nuclear weapons program in 2003. I guess it also says it has not started up again. In fact given how the intelligence community had stood behind Bush on Iraq, I do take the report with a grain of salt, but at least it takes the air out of whatever trial balloons the US wants to float for an Iranian bombing campaign (and thank god). If the Israeli military disagrees with the NIE, and if they want to do some precision bombing, well, that's fine with me, and I expect no one in the US would be too upset. We tend to trust the Israeli’s to get it right. And let me say also, (as far as I know) the NIE does not say anything about Iran's other activities, such as aiding terrorists. They are still on the axis of evil hook for that. What’s important on our side of the pond is whether and/or when the Bush administration knew about the NIE, and still wanted to play chicken with Iran. And even that’s not all that important in a lame duck administration.

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  20. Well thanks Ed. For a minute there, I thought the entire American intelligence community might have something meaningful to say. But if Ed Heath takes it with a grain of salt, it must be completely bogus. Thank the Great Googly Mooglie we have Ed to protect us from the ignorance of hundreds of intelligence experts.

    Another thing -- about the Iraelis bombing Iran. Here I was under the impression that doing so might get the Russians and Chinese involved and might set off something really big, like, say, the WWIII thing with which Bush has been threatening us. But now that you say it's OK, I guess the Israelis should use up a couple of their nukes and send all of Persia back into the stone age. Yeah! Make those damn towel-heads glow in the dark! And while we're at it, we might as well have them take out Syria, too. Look at all the Iranians and Syrians that were involved in the 9/11 attacks!

    What the hell, let's ask them to get France for us for not participating the the Glorious Liberation of Iraq. Let's see how they like a little plutonium with their truffles and fois gras! Tell them to get the Mona Lisa the hell out of the Louvre, then drop the big one right on that annoying Eiffel Tower! The English? Well, they did remove most of their troops from Iraq...we'll have to think about them. Maybe just the Chunnel.

    Sure, Saudi Arabia is the world's most prolific supplier of terrorists and Pakistan is second, but they're our friends, so we should let them go -- for now.

    Why would we listen to folks with 40 or 50 years experience, like Zbigniew Brzezinski among so many others, when we have Ed Heath guiding both American and Israeli foreign policy? To paraphrase the immortal Rudolf Giuliani, "Thank god Ed Heath is guiding George Bush, the president of the United States."

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  21. As I commented on my blog: if i read Jack Kelly too close to breakfast, I generally lose it after the first paragraph.

    His so-called military credibility is laughable at best.

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  22. "I'm afraid that neither David Duke nor the Aryan Union would care much for my prose, them being on your (you know, the far, far right)side and all."

    You did compare me to nazis, see.

    Once again, your comment was so full of holes I don't even know where to begin.

    ...and you keep drinking the kool-aid.

    I could sit here and argue with you for days over the twisted and incorrect facts you continue to spew out (for one thing, Iran is largest state sponsor of terror, not saudi arabia) but its a waste of time. I get more pleasure at watching a crazy like you lose your mind and go off on an ideological rant on some no good evil zionist like myself.

    Onitheist or whatever his name is referred to you as a far-left inernet character asassin and I think he hit the nail right on the head with that one. You exhibit all the signs of a madman and its a shame you can only see the world through craziness.

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  23. Jeez, John, did I say totally bogus (ith regard to the intelligence community)? I'm just saying that could unfold badly. Did I suggest the Israelis should use nukes pre-emptively? Fact is, they have (conventionally) bombed suspected nuke-making facilities in the past, and may do so in the future. I was just saying they are probably better at it than I think we would be (Tom Clancy fantasies non-withstanding). Also, I don't necessarily have anything good to say about Saudi Arabia or Pakistan either, although its not surprising we don't condem them. Saudi Arabia still sends us a lot of oil, and we need Pakistan if only because we need (parts of) their govenment to go after terrorists. Not that I agree with the policies, I am just stating my understanding of them. I'll try and make it clear when I actually agree with a position in the future, as opposed to making an observation.

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  24. There are many ways to define madness, Moosie. One would be to see the world as it is not. In this last bit of maundering we will generously call a post, you have added to the evidence that shows that you fall under this definition.

    First, as I must apparently remind you again, it actually was you who brought up David Duke and the Aryan movement. You associated me to them. I, OTOH, did NOT compare you to them. I merely pointed out the obvious fact that both you and they are on the exteme, ultra, semi-nutty right end of the conservative whacko crowd. That does not make you a Nazi, just a very warped creature.

    Yeah, you could sit there and argue with me for days about the facts. Right. Why don't you start with just one? What? You say you did? You say you pointed out that I was wrong about Saudi Arabia and Pakistan being the world's greatest "state sponsor of terror" when in fact Iran is. Wow, you got me there. Except for the minor detail that I made no such statement. (Hmmm, would we call multiple hallucinations a symptom of madness?) What I said was that the most terrorists come from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan. I did not mention Jordan, another ally, but it is another major source.

    Another delusion of yours is that I called you an "evil Zionist." This seems to be another specter which has emerged from your waking nightmares.

    This tendency of yours to see things that no one else sees -- is this a regular occurrence, or just something that happens when you forget to take your medications?

    I have been remiss in not wishing you a Happy Channukah, Moosie. May the holiday bring you joy and perhaps ameliorate a tiny bit of your hatred for your neighbors and those who disagree with you. If my antics here bring you a moment of comic relief from the obvious misery in which you live, consider them to be my little contribution to your Channnukah gelt.

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  25. Smitty,

    "evil zioist" was implied when you said I should "go back to torturing people" in an earlier post. I compared to the aryan union because that first speech you gave was laced with anger, bitterness, hatred, and disgust of Israelis, not all that different from the speeches that were given when David Duke shook hands with your buddy, Ahmadinejad. That was what I was implying.

    And by the way, Hamas does not help the peole of Gaza at all. This is a group that tunneled into a Fatah headquarters and exedcuted their fellow Palestinians in the streets. A couple of weeks ago, they opened fire into a protest against them and killed eight innocent people. Does that help the people of Palestine?

    Odds are you'll follow up with abother anger-laced rant in your desperate attempt to continue one-upping me, but I don't care. Us Israelis have bigger problems to deal with than far-left fantatics preaching hateful, bitter rhetoric over the internet.

    Al Tedag, I'll be back in the morning (night for you fellas) to make sure you haven't made to much of a fool out of yourself with your frightening speeches in which you elevate yourself as all-knowing.

    In the meantime, maybe you should read some of the posts you have made earlier and realize what a crazy little left wing zealot you really are. May god help us if any of your views are ever made into American foreign policy, then we will really be screwed.

    Kol Tuv
    Af al pe chain

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  26. Smitty,

    "evil zioist" was implied when you said I should "go back to torturing people" in an earlier post. I compared to the aryan union because that first speech you gave was laced with anger, bitterness, hatred, and disgust of Israelis, not all that different from the speeches that were given when David Duke shook hands with your buddy, Ahmadinejad. That was what I was implying.

    And by the way, Hamas does not help the peole of Gaza at all. This is a group that tunneled into a Fatah headquarters and exedcuted their fellow Palestinians in the streets. A couple of weeks ago, they opened fire into a protest against them and killed eight innocent people. Does that help the people of Palestine?

    Odds are you'll follow up with abother anger-laced rant in your desperate attempt to continue one-upping me, but I don't care. Us Israelis have bigger problems to deal with than far-left fantatics preaching hateful, bitter rhetoric over the internet.

    Al Tedag, I'll be back in the morning (night for you fellas) to make sure you haven't made to much of a fool out of yourself with your frightening speeches in which you elevate yourself as all-knowing.

    In the meantime, maybe you should read some of the posts you have made earlier and realize what a crazy little left wing zealot you really are. May god help us if any of your views are ever made into American foreign policy, then we will really be screwed.

    Kol Tuv
    Af al pe chain

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  27. You can say that again, Moosie.

    Still no responses to my facts, huh? Huh! Surprising! NOT!

    Just a couple of points as you toddle off to sleep:

    -- The fact that you infer something that I didn't imply says more about your mental health than mine.

    -- As far as my making a fool of myself, let me quote two universally-admired wise men:

    Virgil Sollozzo: "Yeah, well, let me worry about Luca."

    XRanger: Physician, heal thyself.

    -- XRanger's aphorism might also apply to zealotry. In fact, do you have any idea where the word comes from? Could it be.........Israeli Jews?

    -- I am pleased that you agree that I am continually one-upping you, but believe me, it's no effort at all.

    Well, chalomot tovim!

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  28. What's with all this anger and hatred?

    Schmuck (crazy person) seems to have a lot of anger bottled up inside. His opponents, even you Moses, and that other guy, omnitheist seem to be adopting his fierce and rather frightening tone. Just take a step back you guys, come on.

    Schmuck...you need to accept that there are other viewpoints out there that many people see as correct. Trust me, most Americans (Israelis too) reject the extreme left ideology. Therefore, it doesn't help when you label everyone to the right of Josef Stalin as nothing more than a "necon wingnut". Come on now...

    Moses, I ask you to refrain from using schmuck's (aka smitty) smear attacks and verbal assaults on reason and moderate people like yourself. It makes you sound almost as crazy as him when you talk like that.

    At the end of the day, respect is still important even if the two opponents have wildly different outlooks on what's happening in the world.

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  29. Aharon, I've come to the conclusion, after much debate over the last few days, that schmuck and his band of internet character asassins don't understand what respect is. They only no how to scream out hateful rants about anyone they disagree with, even if its a decent point. Anything that can hamper there agenda of imposing their extremist views on the United States is viewed as a threat. Therefore, if you say "We need to stay in Iraq to help the Iraqi people" your nothing more than a "neocon wingnut", as you pointed out so well.

    Trying to get these crazy people to come to the table of peaceful and reasonable debate would be like President Bush inviting Ahmadinejad to the White House for dinner to calmly ask him to stop funding Hamas and killing our brave soldiers in Iraq. It will never, ever happen.

    When 90% of the country rejects your ideology, your definetely going to be a bitter, angry individual like Schmuck. Your also likely to have an explosive, lethal temper that might put Alec Baldwin to shame, again, like Schmuck does.

    Also adding to this cauldron of hatred is the fact that the far-left cannot get their democratic puppets to end the war in Iraq, even after that foolproof moveon.org ad about general petraeus. Basically they've tried everything (cursing George Bush, making clever ads, cursing Bush some more, sending code pink freaks in to scream at Condolezza Rice) and its failed. On top of that, they're devastated by the recent progress in Iraq.

    The best thing we can do right now is to continue to reject the extreme left agenda and defend America whenever they open their mouths and unleash savage verbal assaults on the president. I don't think Bush is perfect, but you should always respect the office of the president no matter what.

    You Israelis are great and I'm proud to have you as an ally.

    Schmuck, please chill out for a while, it will definetely do you some good. I know, I know, I'm just an ignorant neocon wingnut, but still, just try it. Maybe you should tell Moses he's made a few good points in his comments and show you do have an understanding of reality.

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  30. Aharon,

    Your right, getting into a fierce verbal showdown with this guy, smitty, is a waste of time.

    Smitty,

    I haven't bothered to answer your questions because it would not be worth it. Someone who has such a deep-seeded hatred for Israel and her people obviously will never change. If you were a smart, clear thinking person open to other viewpoints, it would be totally different. But for the crazies like you, its too late to even try to save you from the fanatical jaws of the extreme American left.

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  31. "I haven't bothered to answer your questions because it would not be worth it."

    The problem in a nutshell. You've responded with bile rather than discussion.

    And of course, anyone who disagrees with the policies of the government of Israel is an antisemite even if they themselves are Jews.

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  32. Aharon and Moosie:

    During a speech Harry Truman made in running for re-election in 1948 (I was in the audience as a youngster of 43 at the time) a supporter yelled from the crowd, "Give 'em hell, Harry." Truman replied, "I don't give them hell. I just tell the truth about them and they think it's hell."

    Unlike you folks, I make no claims of psychiatric prowess, I don't know whether you're crazy or not. Perhaps it's simply profound denial, perhaps it's the poisonous influence of fundamentalist religion, perhaps it's the way you have to twist your perceptions to fit into your warped worldview. Whatever it is, you clearly live in on entirely different planet, far from those of us who subscribe to, as it says on the masthead of this blog, the reality-based philosophy.

    Rather than debate the issues, you have chosen to make my mental health the topic of all your posts. Certainly I am flattered by your attention and entertained by the bittersweet irony, but I fear we shall have very little opportunity to communicate about mutually interesting events and circumstances while you insist that my "anger" and my "craziness" are more urgent topics for consideration than, say, the hundreds of nuclear weapons stockpiled in Israel.

    So I will agree with you, Moosie, that you will never convert me to your particular fanatical brand of Zionism, and I will accept that you and Aharon will never be capable of clarity of thought.

    I will further accept your statement that "it would not be worth it" to waste my time explaining concepts that you can neither understand nor absorb. This conversation, similarly to another recent conversation, ends with your reply, if you choose to make one, full of the very rancor and choler of which you accuse those who disagree with you.

    As far as I am concerned you may feel free to continue your ravings on this blog and be ignored as a wise mother will ignore her spoiled and screaming offspring tugging on her skirt. Of course I do not speak for Dayvoe or Marie who are remarkable tolerant of the right fringe of the ultra-right of the lunatic conservative movement -- for example, like John K. to whom we administer the occasional slap but otherwise consider just an amusing interruption from adult discussion.

    Chanukah sameach. Toda, lehitraot, and kul tov.

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  33. Not so BTW, congratulations to Maria and Dayvoe for attracting an international presence to this 'Burgh-oriented blog. Keep up the good work and don't let the low quality of furrin corresponence (and corresponents) discourage you. It can only go up from here.

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  34. Schmuck,

    Considering that this blog is a direct outgrowth of our old Honsberger is a Liar blog, we let the Right spew all they want -- which usually gives them just enough rope to hang themselves with. ;-)

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  35. I'm impressed Smitty,

    Most left-wingers will yell, scream, and attack until they get their way, seeing as they can never get their own candidates on the ballot because most Americans reject them.

    But you've decided to do what Aharon urged you to do--chill out. I applaud you for doing so. Here's some tips before you start:

    1. Remember everyone to the right of you is not "just another neocon wingnut"

    2. Try and open up your mind and read blog/books/tv that give both sides of the debate, not just the left

    3. You really do have a passion for hating Israel, therefore, I suggest you contact your local Israeli consulate and join one of their stand by Israel groups, where Americans work with Jews and Israeli citizens to promote awareness about the situation in the Middle East. It will give you a chance to see that Israelis really aren't such bad people after all.

    4. Write a letter to President Bush and apologize to him for being so disrespectful. You don't have to, but it will probably make you feel good about yourself and maybe you'll realize the president is not Hitler or the thrid antichrist, as many leftists fear.

    5. Read the Jerusalem Post...that's a good paper that gives you a good dose of reality. It's not politically driven, it just tells it as it is.

    Well, these are my tips I think they can help you as you cool off. You can follow them if you want, but then again, maybe you'll find your own way as you travel down the path to a moderate, clear thinking individual.

    I will be coming back periodically to make sure your leftist pals aren't brainwashing you again, and remember I am rooting for you in this. You can do it Smitty!

    ...and if I have to adopt the hit, run, and laugh techniques used by that John K huy, I will do it.

    Thank you for wishing me a good Chanukeh season, I'm not sure what your religion is, but you have a great season too.

    Kol Tuv
    your debate pal, Moses

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