Democracy Has Prevailed.

June 18, 2008

Worried about Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania?

First the caveat. Poll numbers are snapshots. The reality they reflect changes. But at this point, Senator Obama's ahead in these three very important states.

From TPM Election Central:
Obama (D) 47%,
McCain (R) 43%
Margin of error: ±2.6%

Obama (D) 48%,
McCain (R) 42%
Margin of error: ±2.6%

Obama (D) 52%,
McCain (R) 40%
Margin of error: ±2.5%
The numbers are from Quinnipiac.

Wow, Obama's up by 12 points in Pennsylvania. More from TPM:
According to our Election Central Poll Tracker, this is the first poll ever in which Obama has led McCain in Florida. Obama previously had a lot of trouble here thanks to the primary controversies that kept him out of the state, but this poll shows he's overcoming that difficulty rather quickly. Even if part of it is a post-primary boost, it would still seem to say that any ill will from the primaries is over with.
In case you were worried.


Anonymous said...

This is good news, BUT it's only June. Still, if the Barry's fundraising and organizational efforts remain strong, he'll be in good shape come the convention and into the fall. I am cautiously optimistic.

- Shawn

cathcatz said...

i WAS worried. it makes me feel somewhat better to see that people might actually be listening to his message.

i can't help but worry about the people that i know who say they still won't vote for him simply because he's black.

welcome to pennsyltucky.

Schultz said...

McCain's flip flop on offshore drilling just cost him the state of Florida. Mark my words...offshore drilling a few miles from the Florida shores would be a disaster for their tourism industry, which is basically their entire economy. Without Florida McCain's chances are nil.

Anonymous said...

John K. says: I hope McCain flip flopped on drilling for oil. Good for him. At least his comments will ad more barrells of oil into the supply. As opposed to taxing profits.
Now I fully expect that every poll shown in this blog for the next what 5 months will show how huge a lead Obama has. Which also means that not one will be taken seriously for that very reason.

Anonymous said...

Poll leads are nice, and generate hope that our country is about to begin recovering from the Bush Jr. period.

What is far more important, however, is work to promote Sen. Obama's election in November. Please contact Obama for America's Pittsburgh headquarters (412-363-1561) and pitch in. If you have more money than time, chip in. If you are in the neighborhood (East Liberty), stop in.

Sen. Obama's campaign also has offices in Johnstown, Greensburg, Waynesburg, Beaver, New Castle, Mt. Lebanon, Altoona, Indiana, Washington, Bedford and many other towns. A large and effective Pitt for Obama group will resume Oakland operations in August.

Many interesting and important tasks are available for assignment. The pay can't be beat -- bumper stickers, posters, pins, and a country you can be proud of.

Tell 'em John K. sent you. I'll make sure the local offices understand what that means.

Anonymous said...

It's early but it's a good position to be in. It's certainly a better position than John McCain finds himself in. An expanded playing field does not favor him and he doesn't have the resources to compete.

More importantly, McCain's campaign is built on carrying Florida and Ohio, while Obama has options that could allow him to win without either of those states. Pennsylvania's numbers really don't surprise. I think the Republican brand is pretty badly damaged here and despite having one of the country's oldest populations, John McCain isn't doing that well.

Any red state where McCain is under 50% is a real concern for him, especially if the margin is within a few points or there is a significant number of undecideds(10% or more). He's underperforming significantly in a number of "safe" Republicans states.

Joshua said...

Jaywillie, I wouldn't put PA to bed quite yet. Yes, the Republican Party is a damaged brand here, but all it takes is for Rendell, Ravingdrunk, and Onorato to do something collectively stupid. Knowing the incestuous relationship, I wouldn't put it past them. Also, should the bar owners get the "drink tax referendum" on the ballot, how many votes could McCain get on riding its coattails?

cathcatz said...

john, you do realize that the major oil companies are already sitting on hundred of acres of drilling leases off-shore, but they are not drilling because they WANT TO HOLD OUT FOR A DESPERATE MARKET.

the answer is not more supply, its less demand.

Anonymous said...

Demand hasn't increased much. The dollar has lost value. If the dollar regained value, we'd see the price of oil drop. The OPEC nations have no incentive to increase supply, but we do. We also have incentive to reduce demand. When a commodity becomes expensive, we have three options: increase our spending power, use less of the commodity, or produce the commodity ourselves. None of these options are mutually exclusive. Why shouldn't we do all of them? They're all good for different reasons. Restoring value to the dollar will help the whole economy, reducing demand will encourage development of alternatives, and increasing supply will reduce dependence on OPEC.

Anonymous said...

I'm not putting anything to bed but it's clear Obama is in a much stronger position than McCain.

And I would say that you are significantly overestimating any impact that Rendell or Ravenstahl might have as well as with the Drink Tax. I honestly don't see McCain getting any "coattails" from that, especially in Allegheny Co. which is dominated by Democrats.

Anonymous said...

When s a flip flop "change" and not a lie? When Obama does it.

This news from Newsmax: Analysis: Obama Chose Winning Over His Word

Thursday, June 19, 2008 4:00 PM

Obama, a record-shattering fundraiser, reversed course Thursday and decided to forgo more than $80 million so he could raise unlimited amounts of money and spend as much as he wants.

Let's build the first general election campaign that's truly funded by the American people," Obama said _ ignoring the fact that the system he's opting out of is paid for by taxpayers who donate $3 to the fund when they file their tax returns.

Obama blamed his decision in part on McCain and "the smears and attacks from his allies running so-called 527 groups." But he failed to mention that the only outside groups running ads in earnest so far are those aligned with Obama _ and running commercials against McCain.

So much for being a straight shooter.

Anonymous said...

There's misstatements, then there's lies, then there's spam lies, then there's anonymous spam lies.

Miss S. said...

Florida is a close call, but every year, it seems to float more and more to the Republican side. I would be surprised if Obama wins FL this year.