OK, it's been TWENTY FREAKIN' YEARS since Pennsylvania went Republican Red in a presidential election.
Can we finally stop calling it a swing state?
Obama won PA by double digits, OK?
PA is True Blue. (Give up the ghost, Red Team.)
And, in other myth-busting news: You can also forget the Bradley Effect.
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I think so, Maria.
ReplyDeletePA is a solid Dem state - there just aren't enough votes in the more conservative parts of the state to offset Dem dominance in the Southeast corner, Allegheny, Erie, Luverne and Lackawanna.
Dems dominate in the counties were the vast majority of the state's population is located.
Well, it did nearly go to Bush 4 years ago, and when you leave Philadelphia, the state has more in common with Ohio.
ReplyDeleteTrue, Bush came close but Democrats now have a 1 mil+ voter advantage.
ReplyDeleteAnd even in 2004(and 2001), the margin that Democrats get out of the Southeast corner was big enough to offset the votes that come in from the more Republican counties.
McCain actually improved on Bush's numbers in S.W. PA but Obama was able to swing Berks, Chester, Carbon, Monroe, Cambria, Centre and Elk.
So long as Democrats continue to dominate in the SE, Allegheny, Erie, Luzerne and Lackawanna the state is a lock for Democrats.
The only way a Republican wins PA is if that person makes inroads in the urban centers or Philly suburbs or, like Arlen Specter, is so moderate that they can appeal to enough Democrats(which is probably the only way for a Republican to perform better in the areas mentioned) to win.
Right now, Republicans, as far to the right as the party is at the moment(and foreseeable future it appears) just don't have the votes to win PA in a Pres. election.
I like it a swing state. We see the candidates more and it makes my vote feel more worthwhile.
ReplyDeleteJohn K: You need to look closer at the map. Only the urban areas are Democrat. Especially Philadelphia. That is easily explained though. It is easier to control a mob in a city than in the rural areas. Just look at the mob from the Univ of Pitt on election night. Pa is still Ny and LA with Kansas in the middle.
ReplyDeleteAs George Will put it:
ReplyDelete"Democrats win where the people live."
johnny... dirt don't get a vote.
ReplyDeletealways remember that.
PEOPLE get to vote, and where there are more people, there are more votes.
does that make ANY sense to you?
cath,
ReplyDeleteI'm betting that johnk has one of those "Bush Country" t-shirts.
"A fool and his money," as they say.
The point is to work for Pennsylvania's votes every time.
ReplyDeleteAs for controlling mobs, it is child's play to control a rural mob. Just sit them down in church and tell them which fairy tales they believe, and how they must base their votes on carefully selected dogma. Works as well as a shiny, swinging watch in some parts.
You are right Maria and I know from first hand experience. Twenty years ago I served as Executive Director of the Pennsylvania Bush/Quayle '88 campaign under the State Leadership of Elsie Hillman.
ReplyDeleteI remember election night well at the William Penn Hotel. Dukakis lead all night due to the heavy democrat numbers out of Philadelphia and SWPA (which is now much heavier Republican.) It wasn't until the SE suburban counties heavy Republican (which is now heavier Democrat and more populous) and good ole central PA numbers came in did George H.W. Bush take the lead and win as a Republican for the last time in 20 years.
Yes, Maria, PA is a blue state for a very long time.
Not in Robinson Township, y'all. It's as RED as my Commie Grandma! McCain crushed in both Robinson and Kennedy Township. I am moving ASAP. Read all about it here: www.gabbonesso.com.
ReplyDeleteBut we don't allow sharks within the city limits, Gab.
ReplyDeleteYes, I would say we need to move out of the "Swing State" column, and defeat Arlen Specter to further prove it. I was listening on NPR the other day to an interviwe with a woman from Indiana who was so thrilled to be a swing stater with visits from candidates. I would like to give her our swing state status. She can have it and next election, I'll go to Indiana or Florida or Ohio to work!!!
ReplyDeleteThank you Sarah Palin for being a complete and utter asshole!!
Defeat Arlen, let's get a dem!
Janis