What Fresh Hell Is This?

January 28, 2006

When people find out about candidate positions on key issues, Casey plummets

From OpEdNews:
Zogby International conducted interviews of 850 likely Pennsylvania voters online on January 26th and 27th.


The poll is the first to ask about all five PA US senate race candidates and provide positions each holds.

When people find out about candidate positions on key issues, Casey plummets from a twelve point lead to a dead heat, with a non-significant two point lead.

Santorum loses when matched with any of the democratic candidates. Both of the self identified progressive democratic candidates draw higher percentages than Casey, with Pennacchio having the largest percentage of votes against Santorum, at a not quite significant 4.4 points higher than Casey. Casey, at non-significant levels, actually gets MORE votes from Republicans once they find out more about him and Santorum.

Casey refused to respond, so we constructed his positions from media and speeches.
OpEdNews.com's conclusion on this race-- Santorum wants Casey as his opponent because he wins the demographic game. Casey loses massively in some categories, when voters find out about Casey, which Santorum will sure insure. For example, Casy's support among 18-24 year olds drops from 63% to 40%, with Protestants, it drops from 47.3% to 30%, with liberals, from 95.4% to 68%, with moderates, from 64% to 53%, but Casey actually gains support from conservates, going from 3.9% to 5%, a non-significant, but interesting finding.


Rob said...

Some part of me loves mayhem and destruction. It's a good thing, because that's going to be the only way I'll be able to survive watching Santorum get re-elected.

In a sane world, there is no way Santorum could get re-elected. He's succeeded in alienating his own constituency! Anyone with any leanings toward "moderate" is offended by this guy.

Re-elected, though, he will be.

The Democrats are going to tear themselves apart fighting over Pennacchio and Casey.

MsReality said...

No they're not. Pennacchio won't get 20% of the vote. Anyone who actually thinks he has a snowball's chance lives on another planet.

Rob said...

But what damage is he going to do in the process?

Rob said...

I did a game-theory analysis of the results of the Zogby poll at UnSpace. I think parts of the analysis of that poll here at 2PJs is a bit off.

I was hoping for something stranger than what I found. Oh well.

msreality said...

Pennacchio won't do any damage. He's a fringe as they get. Outside of a few fringe blogs like this one, nobody even knows there is another candidate. Its Casey vs. Santorum and has been for a year.

he who is known as sefton said...

okay, let's say you'd like to learn about an actual political campaign to impeach the president ...

ah, none of this noise about a yearning for somebody to go do it ...

in addition, you'd like to learn about a game plan to snag Osama ...

if all the above meets with your approval, then click, somehow, on the following hyperlink:


and get ready for a ride on a wild blog

.he who is known as sefton

oh, yes, the above was copied and then pasted by an actual human being, who visited this "2 Political Junkies" blog.

oh, one more thing, keep an eye on the 10th Congressional District ... I'm trying to base my campaign on the three planks I nailed together in my platform ... "impeach bush" is the first plank ... the second is "impeach bush" ... and the third is like the second, "impeach bush".