The View From Inside the GOP (The House Side)

USNews is reporting today on how House republicans are running for cover.

With an internal memo they call the "death list" the magazine describes how badly they (the GOP) thnk it's gonna be a few weeks from now:

Even though polls have shown that Americans don't like congressional Democrats any more, a new internal GOP tally of House races suggests a Democratic route that could keep the Republicans in the minority for decades. A document provided to Washington Whispers from a House GOP official shows that they could lose a net 34 seats. That means the Democrats would have a 270-165 advantage in the 111th Congress.

Ouch.  That's bad.

McCain Lies About Little Stuff, Too!

We all know the McCain campaign has been lying about Governor Sarah Palin's record in Alaska for some time now.

Now they're lying about how many people show up for events.

Take a look:

Nevada Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki said on stage that 10,000 people were in the crowd, but parks officials said the pavilion held only 3,500 people.

I know the Republicans are good at fudging numbers (votes in Florida, barrels of oil in ANWR, budgets everywhere) but how, exactly, do you fit 10,000 people into a space that holds only 3,500?

And how stupid do they think the rest of us are?  And how stupid are they to think that no one would notice?

Speaking in Tongues

Sarah Palin couldn't have made the all important evangelical wing of the Republican Party any happier last night unless she had started speaking in tongues. Since that would have been a tad too much on prime-time TV she settled for speaking in code.

First, a word on her performance. She performed the speech beautifully. It should be noted that like many top Republicans, Palin's first love is the art of performance. She was a sportscaster who wanted a gig on ESPN. Much like Fred Thompson who always seemed like he would prefer giving an Emmy acceptance speech than speak on the Senate floor or Ronald Reagan who would never have become president if only he could have gotten better roles than "Bedtime for Bonzo" she knows how to act in front of a camera. Biden: please take note.

Now, on to the content:

Well I was born in a small town

And I live in a small town
Probly die in a small town
Oh, those small communities

Wondering about all that sarcasm about being a community organizer? Billmon nails it:

On the face of it, it's a pretty weird repetitive theme. Obama's done lots of stuff -- teaching, state legislature, writing books, etc. -- but "community organizer" seems like an odd one to fixate on. The words themselves have generally positive connotations, particularly that first one: everybody is in favor of "community" (as long as its their community).

Which is exactly the point, I think. Used the way the GOP speakers used the words tonight (i.e. with a sneer), community = ghetto and organizer = activist.

It essentially was a coded way of pointing out Obama's work in, with and for the black community (see? even I'm doing it) on the South Side of Chicago. Also the fact that his work involved helping low-income people stand up for their legal rights, as opposed to a GOP-sanctioned "real" job like business owner or career military officer (or moose hunter.) They were trying to put Obama back on the same level as Jesse Jackson -- i.e., the black protest candidate -- and mocking him for it.

To cut right to the nasty, they were using "community organizer" as a euphemism for "poverty pimp."

Here's someone else who wasn't laughing:


Basically more of the infamous Southern Strategy.

Plus, Republicans know that they have fallen even with the working class. Increasingly hard economic times, war fatigue and the realization that Republicans seriously fucked up Katrina (total lack of competence) has made many willing to actually consider voting their economic interest and less vulnerable to the constant blitz of "only we can keep you safe from terrorists and those who would kill Jesus all over again" (Democrats).

That's why Palin had to pour on the small town love like nobody's business.

Besides, everyone knows the alternative to small towns are big cities which are, um, darker and sinful. And while small town families may have "challenges" if they are good Christians, they get the guy to put a ring on their finger and all is forgiven while the evil sluts in the big, bad city become single mother welfare queens and are illegals anyway sucking the life's blood out of the good, good salt of the earth types. Which is why when Palin had the chance, she line item vetoed support for unwed teen moms.

I am woman, hear me birth

Did you know Sarah is a Mom? Five times over? Did you know that evil Democratic types wanted her to ABORT!ABORT!ABORT! her child with Down Syndrome? Well, if you happen across many of her online supporters, you would certainly be led to believe that we had all sent her wire hangers in the mail.

Palin and her supporters regale her choice to keep her baby while trying to insure that no one else has any choice in their own family planning. How is anything a choice when their party platform demands that all abortions be outlawed including those to save the life of a woman?

"A Servant's Heart"

I want a servants heart
And I will gladly bear the markings
Of one held captive yet free
Not my will but thine
For Lord in your own time
Only you can make a servants heart

He compels me to go
But I would rather stay
He sent me a valley
Once again today
My self determined will
Keeps tearing me apart
But when the works completed
I'll have a servants heart

More and more Lord I see
There's a work I must do
Father may you find me faithful
Trusting only you
Take all that I have been
There, your will to start
And then I'll serve no other master
with this servants heart

Palin used this phrase both in her speech last night and in her speech last Friday when she was introduced to the country.

Just like George W. Bush, Palin uses evangelical dog whistles. This phrase is one:

The third factor is whether Palin's deep devotion to God will cloud or impact her political judgment. In her speech last Friday, Gov. Palin mentioned her intention to serve government with "a servant's heart." According to the National Catholic Reporter, "That reaction wasn't simply about approval of good government; the phrase 'servant's heart' is a popular bit of evangelical terminology, used as a shorthand for Christian humility."

It's also a bit of a cottage industry (books, videos, courses).

In last night's speech Palin said:

But we are expected to govern with integrity, good will, clear convictions, and ... a servant's heart. I pledge to all Americans that I will carry myself in this spirit as vice president of the United States.

Translation for those who cannot hear evangelical dog whistles:

I will serve Jesus as vice president of the United States according to my [and your] correct brand of Christianity.

Might as well have been speaking in tongues

And then there was her distortion of her own record which twisted the facts into outright lies:

PALIN: "I have protected the taxpayers by vetoing wasteful spending ... and championed reform to end the abuses of earmark spending by Congress. I told the Congress 'thanks but no thanks' for that Bridge to Nowhere."

THE FACTS: As mayor of Wasilla, Palin hired a lobbyist and traveled to Washington annually to support earmarks for the town totaling $27 million. In her two years as governor, Alaska has requested nearly $750 million in special federal spending, by far the largest per-capita request in the nation. While Palin notes she rejected plans to build a $398 million bridge from Ketchikan to an island with 50 residents and an airport, that opposition came only after the plan was ridiculed nationally as a "bridge to nowhere."

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EXTREMISTS

With all the talk of pregnancy and choices, let's not lose sight of this:

The Republican Party Platform in regard to abortion not only does not allow for exceptions in the cases of rape or incest, IT DOES NOT ALLOW FOR AN EXCEPTION TO SAVE THE LIFE OF A WOMAN.

And, when it came to vetting Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as their vice presidential candidate, while presidential nominee John McCain was lackadaisical at best, she was vetted by the Council for National Policy, "an ultra-secretive cabal that networks wealthy right-wing donors together with top conservative operatives to plan long-term movement strategy" whose members include extremists like Focus on the Family's James Dobson.
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So Good To Be A Republican These Days! (An Update)

Remember this?

There's an update of sorts in the news today (oh boy). Via TalkingPointsMemo, we find this:

Sen. John Ensign of Nevada has one of the least enviable jobs this year. As chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, he’s in charge of defending the 23 Senate Republican seats up for re-election (versus 12 for Democrats) in a chilly political environment for his party.

Democrats are poised to increase their majority in both chambers of Congress, but while House Republican leaders still make optimistic—but unlikely—claims to have a shot at winning back a majority, Ensign is more pragmatic. “The chances of [Republicans] getting back in to the majority, obviously, it would be fairly miraculous,” he told reporters Thursday during a lunch meeting hosted by the Christian Science Monitor.

Of the 10 most competitive Senate races this year, nine are for seats now held by Republicans. Only one Democrat, Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu, faces a serious challenge in November. Ensign said his best-case scenario would be a three-seat loss on Election Day. “That would be a terrific night for us, absolutely,” he said. “I don’t want to slip below the four-seat loss. That’s kind of where we’ve set our absolute worst goal is to be down to 45 seats.”

So a few days ago, they set their worst case scenario at 41 seats. Now it looks like they're shifting the expectations up to 45 seats. Later in the piece we find:

Ensign identified the 10 most competitive races in the states of Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Alaska, Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Virginia. Two — Virginia and New Mexico — are heavily favored at this point to flip to Democratic control. Asked if the NRSC was mulling walking away from these two races to focus resources elsewhere, Ensign was non-committal, but added, “You don’t waste money on races that don’t need it or you can’t win.”

So they're writing off two Senate seats and Ensign thinks it would be "terrific" if they only lost one more seat. Worst case for them would be to loose just one more after that.

In any event, if they lose only two (or even three) seats, the Democrats would FINALLY be able to cut whatever ties they have left to the odious Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT).

It's Good To Be A Republican These Days (Part I)

Via Talking Points Memo, we find this at the Savannah Morning News:

The chairman of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee predicts U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss will be part of the firewall the party wants to build against Democratic control of the White House and both chambers of Congress.

U.S. Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., set a minimum on the number of seats the party must control, 41.

And why is 41 the magic number? Ensign explains:

"With 41 votes in the U.S. Senate, you can (1) block bad legislation, and (2) you can make the majority respect the minority's rights. And you can help craft good legislation," Ensign said. "If the Democrats were able to get to 60 votes - literally even if they get to 57-58 votes because they always seem to pick off a couple or three Republicans on a lot of votes - and if they win the White House ... they will be able to do pretty much whatever they want."

From TPM:

So if the Dems can't get to a 60-seat super-majority, the GOP will have won. Talk about lowering the bar.

Do you know when the last time the minority party had 41 votes or less?

According to this site from the US Senate, you have to go all the way back to the mid-70s to see numbers this bad. The Republicans in the Senate during the 94th Congress (1975-1977) held only 38 seats. Things didn't change for the 95th Congress (1977-1979) - they still held only 38 seats. Their fortunes improved a bit in the 97th Congress (1979-1981) as they moved up 3 seats to 41.

If the GOP is thinking that their "firewall" is a number not seen since the Watergate backlash, they're in deep doo-doo for sure.

McCain 'kind of like Jesus'

From The Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

Columbus — Georgia Republican Party chairwoman Sue Everhart said Saturday that the party's presumed presidential nominee has a lot in common with Jesus Christ.

"John McCain is kind of like Jesus Christ on the cross," Everhart said as she began the second day of the state GOP convention. "He never denounced God, either."

She later said, "I'm not trying to compare John McCain to Jesus Christ" and still later added, "I don't know what 'like' or 'compare' mean."
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Jack Kelly Sunday

Has it really only been a week since this?

Sheesh, time flies don't it?

Anyway, there's not much to this week's column by our friend Jack Kelly. He's going through the various political algorithms facing the Republican candidates for President. Though it's a tangled trail. Let's take a look.

He starts off with Mike Huckabee (but note how he treats the former Arkansas Governor - it's very telling for the rest of the column).

The Huckaboom may turn out to be the best thing that's ever happened to former Massachussetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

The contest for the GOP nomination for president may well be determined by how frightened other Republicans are by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee

What a subtle deflection! In two short paragraphs, he's succeeded in acknowledging Huckabee's near-frontrunner status AND foretold his possible political demise.

A few paragraphs later we learn from Jack that Huckabee's base is almost entirely the evangelical wing of God's Own Party (what, the evangenicals haven't already absorbed that entire metaphorical bird?). Then we get to what Jack really wants us to know:

His evangelical base has pushed Mike Huckabee to near the front because there are so many other candidates, and so little enthusiasm for them. But the Huckaboom is likely to fade as those charmed by his personality learn more about his policy views and his spotty record as governor.

If the Huckaboom fades, who benefits?

First, let's consider what happens if it doesn't. Most Republicans think Mr. Huckabee would be as bad a president as Jimmy Carter, for essentially the same reasons. So if Mr. Huckabee wins the Iowa caucuses Jan. 3 by a comfortable margin, there will be a rush to rally around the candidate deemed most likely to stop him. Since Rudy Giuliani has been sinking so fast in the polls you'd think he had an anvil on his chest, that figures to be either Mr. Romney or Arizona Sen. John McCain, whoever wins the New Hampshire primary Jan 8.

See? Jack's no fan of Mike Huckabee. He goes through a few scenarios when he settles on who he really likes.

There is another plausible scenario. Suppose Mike Huckabee wins, narrowly, in Iowa, with former Sen. Fred Thompson a close third. Mr. McCain goes on to win, narrowly, in New Hampshire. Mr. Huckabee is alive, but now seems very unlikely to be the nominee. Mr. Romney is on life support, but not dead, because his defeats were so narrow, and his wallet is so big. Mr. McCain is revived, but there is no rush to him because fear of Mr. Huckabee ultimately winning the nomination has diminished. And then there is Fred.

Former Sen. Fred Thompson has been written off because his campaign to date has been, to put it kindly, lackluster. But his political obituary may be as premature as Mr. McCain's.

But all is not lost:

In a campaign marked more by who voters are against than by who they are for, Fred Thompson is a safe choice. His views -- which he articulates well -- offend none of the core constituencies in the GOP. The more Mitt and Huck fight, the better he looks to Iowa voters.

If Mike Huckabee's been the hare in this race, Fred Thompson is the tortoise. In Aesop's fable, it was the tortoise who eventually won.

We'll see if Jack Kelly's political acumen is as sharp as his national security analyses.

Found this on youtube. Hope you like it, Jack!

GOP - Going the way of the Whigs?

From the AP. Things aren't looking up for God's Own Party, nationally. Poor guys. The major leading indicators point downward for our friends across the aisle.

Fundraising for Republican campaign organizations lags. That is strikingly so in the House, where the party committee spent more than it raised in each of the past two months, reported only $1.6 million in the bank at the end of August and a debt of nearly $4 million.

Democrats reported $22.1 million in the bank and a debt of slightly more than $3 million.

So even with the Rush "phony soldiers" Limbaugh noise machine working for them, they're still having trouble fundraising in the House. Poor guys - no really. I weep for them every day.

Speaking of The Addict, did you see that instead of condemning him (like they did with the Moveon.org ad) some Republicans want to commend him for supporting the troops. I guess those Republicans also believe that only those troops that support Dubya's bloody war are "real" soldiers.

Webb Update

As you've probably already seen, The Webb Amendment was killed by a threatened GOP filibuster. Proving again that our troops' best friends in the Senate is the GOP.

The vote was 56-44.

So what does this mean, exactly?

It means that we won't be "demeaning" our troops by getting them some realistic down time. TPMCafe has a transcript:

The reenlistment rates of those who have served in the theater are larger than those of any other. And, in fact, it is a testament to their courage, to their valor, and their sense of duty to their country. I think we would demean their service if we were to say to them that there had to be a parity between the time in service out of the country and the time at home. The goal ought to be for us not to have 15-month deployments. The hope would be that these would never be necessary. But the mandate from congress that this is how we must operate our armed forces I think is ill-conceived, it is dangerous and does not serve either the national interest of our nation nor the interest of the soldiers on the field whom it is intended to serve.

We should not have a subterfuge of policy to change direction in Iraq heaped on the back of our brave young men and women in uniform...

Greg Sargent sums it up for us:

The argument here appears to be that because the amount of service our troops have performed shows that they are heroic, it would hence "demean" them to reduce that amount of service by giving them longer rest time -- because it would deprive them of more time to be heroic.

As a consolation prize, Our Troops Best Friends (ie the GOP) offered up an alternate resolution. You can read it here.

Of course (and you know you saw this coming) Martinez voted FOR that amendment. Greg Sargent, again:

Just to savor this for a moment, consider that Martinez said above that it would "demean" the service of the troops to support Webb's measure, because we mustn't "say to them that there had to be a parity between the time in service out of the country and the time at home." But apparently it's okay to say this to them via the measure put forth by the GOP, as long as we're not voting for something that would actually make this happen.

Yep - the troops's best friends are in the GOP.

Is Mitt Romney For Real?

From Talkingpointsmemo.

Transcript:

Cong. Ron Paul: At the same time those individuals who had predicted these disastrous things to happen if we leave Iraq are the same ones who said as soon as we go in it'll just be ducksoup, it'll be over in three months. It won't cost us anything because the oil will pay for it.

Gov. Mitt Romney: Has he forgotten about 9/11?

RP: At the same time the individuals who predicted the disastrous course, the domino theory in Vietnam, I was called to duty. I accepted that duty in the sixties. I served five years in the military. When we left there it was tough, yes. But now we trade with Vietnam. We talk to 'em. The President's come to this country. We go back and forth. We invest in this country. We can achieve much more in peace than we can ever achieve in these needless unconstitutional undeclared wars.

I can't say I'm a follower of Paul's but this is right on the money. And please please PLEASE notice what Mitt Romney's knee-jerk reaction to criticism of the war in Iraq:

Has he forgotten about 9/11?

Is that their defense of dubya's otherwise indefensible war? 9/11? For the umpteenth time - what did Iraq have to do with 9/11?

How much more ridiculous could that argument be? Uh, not much (coincidentally, I saw this last night):

Back to the non-cartoon ridiculousness.

If that's the best the guy who's leading the lackluster pack (albeit with "soft and shallow" support) in Iowa can do, then things look mighty scary for God's Own Party.