Casey Santorum Poll Numbers

Wingnuttia is agog over a recent report about a Zogby poll that puts Rick Santorum within 4 points of Bob Casey.

My sources in both the Casey and Rendell camps say not so fast.

Turns out the Zogby polling done in statewide races includes data from on-line polling - and that, according to its critics, invariably skews the numbers. So much so that the National Journal refuses to post polls that do online polling. National Journal from March of 2006:

There are a bunch of new poll numbers circulating in a bunch of states, thanks to the release of the latest online polls Zogby Int'l conducts for the Wall Street Journal's web site. We don't publish or acknowledge the existence of these numbers in any of our outlets because we are just not comfortable that online panels are reliable indicators.

The brief piece ends with:

Finally, and here's the clincher for why we look at both Zogby online and Rasmussen with such a jaundiced eye: if either method of polling (online panels or automated callers) were consistently reliable, wouldn't professional campaign pollsters be using it? It's certainly cheaper.

So what numbers are the campaigns actually seeing? A source close to the Rendell Campaign who's familiar with the polling tells me that their internal numbers are different from this Zogby poll. Each poll has Casey over Santorum. Here's the data:

• 53/43 (09/07/06)
• 51/42 (08/14/06)
• 54/42 (07/27/06)

The numbers have barely budged. Rick's still stuck in the low forties.

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