The Trib Reports Poll Numbers

While the rest of wingnuttia goes crazy over a flubbed joke from a Democrat who's not even running this cycle, I thought I'd keep my eye on the ball and let you know that there's more bad news for Pennsylvania Republicans. There's new poll numbers in the Tribune Review.

Stuff That Needs To Be Said Up Front:

• The Tribune-Review is not a liberal newspaper.
• The writers do not question the validity of the poll numbers.

So I guess they must be accurate, eh?

Very little of it is good news for Rick Santorum, George Bush, or God's Own Party.

Take a look.

Democrat Bob Casey has opened up a 15-point lead over Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum -- more than double the lead the challenger held in September -- according to a Pittsburgh Tribune-Review/WTAE-TV Keystone poll released today.

Casey leads Santorum 53 percent to 38 percent, with 9 percent undecided, according to the telephone poll of 626 registered voters conducted over five days ending Sunday. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

A Keystone poll conducted in late September showed Casey, the state treasurer from Scranton, with a 7-point lead over Santorum, of Penn Hills, the third-ranking Republican in the Senate. [emphasis added]

As I said, bad news for Ricky. Some analysis from a frequent (and friendly) guest of Fred Honsberger's, G. Terry Madonna:

"(Santorum) is falling further behind as voters seem to be rejecting his shift in course toward focus almost exclusively on the war on terror," said Keystone Poll director G. Terry Madonna, a political science professor at Franklin & Marshall College, Lancaster County.

"It's a campaign theme that's not working well," Madonna said.

Poor guy. Maybe Rick will get to go back to his home in Virginia and start making real money working as a lobbyist. Or maybe he will make big bucks on the lecture circuit.

The part of the article that may boost the spirits (as if they need any more boosting) of the other candidates in the state is this:

Casey's lead, combined with Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell's 25-point advantage over Republican challenger Lynn Swann, could portend disaster for Republicans on Tuesday, when voters head to the polls.[emphasis added]

Though it's not a lock.

Votes for Casey or Rendell won't automatically translate into votes for other Democrats if a Republican candidate is perceived as having done a good job, said Al Neri, editor of The Insider, a statewide political newsletter.

However

Santorum trails Casey in nearly all regions, including by 3 points in Central Pennsylvania, where Republicans traditionally enjoy their strongest support.

Santorum trails in Central PA?

Santorum leads only in Northwestern Pennsylvania, 50-41 percent, the poll shows. Casey leads by 27 points in Allegheny County and 16 points in the southwest, where U.S. Rep. Melissa Hart, R-Bradford Woods, is seeking to beat back a strong challenge from Democrat Jason Altmire in the 4th Congressional District.

Gee, ever wonder why the good folks over at Altmire HQ are tying Missy Hart to Rick's sinking fortunes every chance they get? Smart folks over there in Altmireland.

Rick Santorum - not only is he sinking fast, he night drag the rest of the state's GOP candidates down with him.