What Fresh Hell Is This?

April 3, 2008

Tracking the numbers here at 2PJ.

There've been some new poll numbers released recently. Looks like the numbers are getting closer here in PA. Take a look here. According to the RCP average, the Clinton lead is now down to 6.


That includes SurveyUSA's 12 point lead and the recent Rasmussen poll that has Senator Clinton up by 5.

There've been others noticing, too. From New York magazine:

To anyone tracking delegates, it’s been clear for more than a month that Hillary Clinton’s candidacy is in mortal danger. But as long as she was battling Barack Obama at the polls every week, she could hope to control the narrative of the Democratic race, even if she was losing individual contests. And so her campaign kept sprouting new raisons d’ĂȘtre: the wisdom of superdelegates, the enfranchisement of Florida and Michigan, her supposed ability to carry big states.

No more. We’re now halfway through the six weeks between Mississippi and Pennsylvania, and this long interlude has washed away Clinton’s spin. Now her campaign is not only over. It’s obviously over.

In four of the past five days, Obama has gone over 50 percent in Gallup’s tracking poll and has opened a lead over Clinton averaging seven points. This is the first time either candidate has moved significantly beyond the fluctuations inherent in daily surveys, and it’s the longest stretch one of them has spent as the leader since late February. Obama is breaking out in a meaningful way.
He's talking national polls here. And on the Reverend Wright thing? There's this:
Wright cost Obama. From the first week in March (when the Wright controversy first broke) to the third, his positive rating held steady at a rather incredible 82 percent among black voters, but dropped from 47 percent to 42 percent among whites, according to NBC/Wall Street Journal polls. But Wright’s wake cut Clinton even worse: During that same period, she fell twelve points among African-Americans, from 63 percent to 51 percent, and dropped five points among white voters, too, from 39 percent to a Bush-like 34 percent. Clinton now performs particularly horribly across the upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest, where white Democrats trend progressive and like Obama. In Iowa, Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin, she now trails John McCain while Obama leads him, and she is doing markedly poorer in Connecticut and Virginia, too.
Then there's the money:

Now look at the money. Clinton said she raised more than $35 million in February, and at the start of last month, she had $33 million in cash on hand. But it turns out that only $11 million of that was money she could spend during the remainder of the primary season; the rest was general-election contributions. Which means Hillary never really got beyond her base of wealthy donors, many of whom maxed out on contributions to the nominating race. Obama, in contrast, had $31 million to spend during the rest of the primaries.

Clinton also had a staggering $8.7 million in debts, not even including the $5 million she loaned her own campaign. Indeed, the Hillary machine has taken to stiffing various small vendors. One New Hampshire doctor rented a building he owns to Clinton; it took so long for the campaign to pay him that he decided to forward its $500 check to Obama. That kind of cash-stretching reeks of desperation: Not paying your bills on time is a signal you might not be able to pay them at all.

It's all summed up with these two paragraphs:

Overall, Clinton was able to spend just $400,000 on TV ads last week, all in Pennsylvania. Obama spent $2 million, in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana. And those proportions aren’t changing anytime soon.

Fifty-one percent negatives among white voters, no cash — and now a lead in Pennsylvania that has dwindled to five points: They don’t come any more stalwart than Hillary Clinton, but the next three weeks are going to be one long death march.



Schultz said...

The only pollster that has been consistent throughout the primary is SuveryUSA. All other polls should be ignored.

Anonymous said...

John K. says: Give it up. That poll means nothing. Operation Chaos has their marching orders and Hillary has already won the state.

"Fair and Balanced" Dave said...

Pollster has a compilation of the various PA Primary polls.

I agree with Dayvoe that the most recent PPP poll is most likely a statistical outlier. However all polls indicating that Hillary's lead is dwindling and I expect that trend to continue.

I think Hillary will win on the 22nd, however I don't think her margin of victory will be more than 10 percent (my current "guesstimate" of the final tally is Hillary 50% Obama 43%)

Anonymous said...

John K. says: Of course Hillary Clinton will win. 43,000 cross over Republicans will ensure that. Opeation Chaos has their marching orders. We have to keep those two bashing each other till Sept. Limbaugh owns the Democrats.

Anonymous said...

Project Chaos has been such a hit that it has sent Hillary's lead all the way from 20 points up to 9! Rush is a genius.