Senator Arlen Specter (R-PA) could be in very serious trouble. Former Rep. Pat Toomey, who challenged Specter from the right in the Republican primary back in 2004, then went on to head the Club For Growth, is reportedly running again in 2010.So by all means, in a state that, in 2006, tossed out ultra-conservative Rick Santorum by a margin of almost 18 percentage points, let's hope the GOP follows it's own advice and tries to reclaim the majority by fielding candidates who are more conservative than the electorate they're looking to represent.In this case, bad news for Specter could also be good news for Democrats -- if the ultra-conservative Toomey wins the primary, the Democratic nominee will have a very good shot at winning the seat, as opposed to Specter starting out as the favorite in any general election.
Toomey very nearly beat Specter in the 2004 primary, making it a 51%-49% race even though Specter had the full weight of the Bush White House behind him. This time could be different: There is no Republican White House; the GOP voter base is smaller and even more conservative; and most importantly, Specter has just voted for the stimulus package -- you know, that thing the right-wing activists denounce as a socialist takeover of America.
Indeed, a recent Susquehanna poll showed just how problematic things are for Specter: Among registered Republicans, 66% want someone else, and only 26% say he deserves another term.
Very smart move.
7 comments:
So by all means, in a state that, in 2006, tossed out ultra-conservative Rick Santorum by a margin of almost 18 percentage points
Lets not forget that Santorum's opponent is pro-gun and pro-life.
If Pat Toomey wins the primary, We wingnuts hope the democrats run someone like Joe Hoeffel (Anti-Gun/Pro-Abortion) against him.
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Toomey will go down like the Homecoming Queen on prom night.
Striking. Partisan Democrats will root for Toomey because Specter would be far more likely to win a general election. Hard-righters (concentrated and consequently more powerful in what remains of the Republican Party) will push for Toomey because they neither know nor care anything about general election calculus -- they merely want to rant about socialism and ragheads and the responsibility of the DemocRAT Party for the wreckage of recent years.
If the Democrats get their wish, it will include a one-in-whatever longshot chance that a knuckle-dragger would be elected. Republicans, after a few heady months of ranting, will have eliminated or hobbled one of the few candidates capable of preserving Republicans' dwindling relevance in the federal government (and the only thing preventing Democrats from completely reshaping the federal judiciary in Pennsylvania).
Toomey, meanwhile, appreciates the help from both sides, because from his perspective -- as was the case when he was running nuisance bars and running away from drunken driving victim claims -- it's all about him, and the Benjamins.
At a time when our nation needs statesmanship and good citizenship to counteract the consequences of some sick years, Pennsylvania features sicker co-dependency from all sides.
Sigh.
Now, that is a Republican that is fair to tie to the Club for Growth. It all depends how ridiculous tax cuts and "tax and spend liberalism" sound by the time of the election. I was about to say Specter isn't in much trouble at all, but then I remembered as the Republican party shrank before the Obamastorm, the remainder likely became more sharply partisan.
I can't root for Toomey. If I like the Democrat running against Specter in the fall at all, yeah I'm likely to jump ship, but I want Specter to walk away with the Republican nomination for America's sake. Man's dignified.
Bram, your position is well-stated, but you're just wrong. For American's sake, you want to rid the Senate of both the Republican seat currently held by the "moderate" Specter and the man himself -- remember the Clarence Thomas hearings?
In a rational world, Specter would be the right wing and so would Barack Obama. Unfortunately, this corner of the world stopped being rational in 1980.
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