Cilliza: Nat'l GOP Backs Arlen

The Fix:

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn released a letter today offering a full-throated endorsement of Sen. Arlen Specter in his coming primary against former congressman Pat Toomey, a decision driven by a concern that the challenger cannot win a general election in Pennsylvania.

The letter can be found here.

No matter what the Club-for-Growth folks have to say, Toomey's in the same boat he was 6 years ago, though the boat is in drastically different waters. From Cornyn's letter:

My job as head of the NRSC is to guide the GOP back to a majority in the Senate.

That's it right there. His job (among others) as head of the NRSC is to make sure all the Republican Incumbents get re-elected. First hurdle is the primary. Cillizza explains the layout laid out by Cornyn. Continuing the above quotation:

"I can't do that without Arlen Specter. With him as our nominee, I can target our campaign resources toward beating Democrats and growing the Senate Republican Conference."

The implication of those lines is clear: if Toomey is the Republican nominee next November, "campaign resources" may not flow from Washington to Pennsylvania.

Why? Cillizza goes on:

The Republican base in Pennsylvania has shrunk considerably since Specter beat back Toomey 51 percent to 49 percent in 2004. A combination of distaste/disgust for President Bush and his administration's policies and a huge recruitment and registration effort by President Obama's campaign in 2008 have led to a deep erosion among moderate Republicans and those independents who leaned toward the GOP.

The problem for the GOP is two fold. Due to the erosion of Republicans in the state (and by "erosion" I mean there are fewer Republicans in the state then there were - I am not implying any sort of "water on the wicked witch of the west, causing her to melt" type of erosion) it will be both easier for Toomey to win the nomination but harder for him to win the election.

Cillizza's right. Specter's in deep trouble. And so is the Statewide GOP.