The core of his article:
There's lots of really interesting numbers to support his conclusion. Payne was too cocky leading up to the primary and lost important support in Ward 5.So ... how did Tonya Payne, a one-term incumbent, lose to Daniel Lavelle? How could Payne, who beat Sala Udin in 2005, lose to Udin's former assistant just four years later?
On paper, these races were very similar. In both, Payne was running against either Udin or his ally. And in both, the same dark-horse candidate -- school board member Mark Brentley -- was also in the running. So how did Lavelle find the means to defeat her this time around?
The answer is simple: He didn't. Payne beat herself.
The conclusion:
Maybe it doesn't really matter, since Lavelle won in any case. But Lavelle should make sure he doesn't get cocky. He won with just 44.5 percent of the vote -- almost exactly the same percentage Payne earned in 2005. And while a lot of folks outside the district are excited by his victory, the numbers show little evidence that people inside the district were swept up in the enthusiasm.Go read Potter.Other than a modest improvement in precincts near the arena site, Lavelle did nothing to expand on the base that Udin bequeathed him. In fact, Lavelle actually lost ground in the district's North Side wards (where perhaps other voters shared Sue Kerr's doubts about his commitment to the North Side).
This election was about voters turning on Payne ... just as 2005 seems to have been about voters turning on Udin. If he's smart, Lavelle will be mindful of the trend here.
8 comments:
My post "Queer Perspective on District 6" generated some thoughtful responses and some rather vitriolic, ridiculous responses. One blogger suggested I think marriage equality is more important than the unnecessary death of young African-American men in our communities. Unfair attempt to pit an issue of civil rights against an issue of life or death. There doesn't have to be an either/or. It also shows that particular person makes huge leaps with regard to my stance as a resident of the City who happens to be a lesbian.
I was also verbally assualted by a supporter of Lavelle, accusing me of literally wanting people to die b/c of my support for Tonya. This attempt to demonize her supporters was uncalled for and, frankly, puts Mr. Lavelle several steps backwards on the path of leadership for me. I can't speak for Manchester in general, but I think the polls speak for themselves.
I'm certainly willing to give Mr. Lavelle a chance, but his campaign tactics (as well as his recent actions at a community meeting) do not bode well.
We'll see.
Well, as that African America blogger, and as the only one in town who writes about politics, I guess that would be me that you're referring to. Go back to your original statement. You said that Tonya was wonderful because you could talk to her, thus paying attention to you folks on the North Side and she was good on lesbian/gay issues. Granted.
I think my argument was black folks have more serious issues to worry about like bullets flying in the streets and rampant joblessness. And Tonya was more than just arrogant she didn't show up for anything. She missed just about every significant debate...just a bad candidate.
I might also add that my hatred of Tonya came exclusively from a black woman known as "The Goddess". You remember her right? The last black writer I've seen down there at the "liberal" paper that Chris runs...Her argument came down to Tonya siding with the mayor (don't we hate the mayor here?) and the Pens against the community on development issues...I think that resonated. I think it resonated more than chit chat with North Siders and Lesbian/gay issues, Sue. Just sayin'...
Philip Shropshire
www.threeriversonline.com
PS: By the way, some errors in yer logic there Sue. Not a big leap to think that black folks in the Hill care more about violence and joblessness than gay issues or chit chat with North Siders. Just sayin there, again, Sue...
PPS: Okay, I'll bite: what were Robert Lavelle's disturbing actions a recent community meeting...?
You tiresomely continue to neglect that I was writing about one point of view. I never said I was speaking for folks in the Hill or providing an all-inclusive critiqute of Tonya's campaign. I'm not getting sucked into the false gay/African-American issue dichotomy. But I defend my right to support my candidate. Your personal hatred was not a factor in my decision.
Mr. Lavelle is 1 for 2 with important public meetings. Let's see what happens in a few weeks at the next one. The meetings are public so be all means attend and see what happens.
Wow. This is stunning. For the record, I had a heavy debate with Sue Kerr on her Facebook page on election day. I found myself dismayed at her position, then and now. In addition, not only did she totally (purposefully?) misinterpret my comments to her as "attacking" and "hostile", she also made comments that mischaracterized my motives and other positions. I really did not / do not appreciate that. By the way, I challenged her statement that Daniel Lavelle doesn't come to Manchester (an accusation for which she has yet to provide evidence) and advised her that if Lavelle won Manchester, it might say something about how she perceives Manchester and how she might be out of touch with at least a part of her community? I came back home after Daniel's victory to find myself deleted from Sue's friend list. I never knew election results could be that impactful. LOL.
Having said that, I am now used to Sue making extraordinarily exaggerated statements about myself, Daniel Lavelle and maybe others that she seems to care very little to support.
Phil, thanks for your comments. The CP was suffering financially so all of us columnists were laid off but I'm getting back to my blog.
Sue is right in that there is no false gay/AA community issues here. Actually, it is just she and her pretty narrow-minded ilk (not to be confused with the entire GLBTQ community) who seem to think that marching in the Pride parade (a symbolic act that could or could not mean anything at all) is more important than actually engaging in public policy decisions and demonstrating leadership that will save lives.
It was convenient for Sue and others to skip over Payne's positioning with the Mayor and yet celebrate Payne because, after all, she "shows up" and "takes my phone calls". Ridiculous. Our kids are dying but I'm glad she takes your phone calls, Sue. Now, she'll have some extra time to visit you at home too, while Daniel Lavelle and others actually WORK to change the quality of our lives, okay?
And, Phil, all it takes is to talk to BLACK LESBIANS and other sensible members of the GLBTQ community to see just how ridiculous Sue sounds. She's out of touch with a large facet of the community and simply doesn't seem to want to accept that her POV is not everyone's POV and her agenda seems far more selfish an agenda than I've seen in a long time. Wow ...
As for the last meeting in Manchester (which focused on the City's demolition list), I was in attendance and saw Daniel Lavelle sitting there, quietly, just listening. Indeed, he would not have even announced himself had YOU(!), SUE KERR, not specifically stood up and ASKED for each elected official and/or their representative to show themselves. Then and only then did he stand up and announce himself as the Councilman-Elect. He also received a heavy applause, although you sat there with a heavy frown on your face.
So, really, what kind of games are you playing, Sue? And are you really that bitter? Seriously?
Oh, let me also add that although Tonya Payne is still your Representative, she did NOT show up or send a representative to Manchester's community meeting.
Like she did NOT show up to Uptown's Community meeting.
Like she did NOT show up to the Middle Hill's Community meeting.
Like she did NOT show up in so many other ways and for so many other important issues.
But she was with the Mayor, who spent $660,000 on his campaign and she had her signs everywhere, outspending Lavelle at least 4-5 times over, so she was confident that her alignment with "power" as opposed to the people she claims to represent was enough.
And that is why she lost.
But she takes Sue's calls, so it's all good, right?
I can't wait to hear Sue's explanation on what Daniel Lavelle did wrong at the Manchester meeting and I am *so glad* I was there as an eyewitness.
By the way, I was in attendance because of Manchester's Historic status and the demolition list, something I'm concerned about in the Hill as well.
Daniel represents an entire District and I doubt that he needs to attend every (or even next week's) community meeting in Manchester but I'm sure if he's not there, it'll demonstrate how he's neglecting the North Side, right?
Sheesh.
Well said Dr. Goddess. Thank you. This is from a black lesbian, poet, and advocate in Pittsburgh who has worked with Tonya Payne in the past.
My, my. Such a hostile response to someone expressing an opinion.
You two are bullies trying to silence someone with the same tactics your patron Sala Udin used to win his seat back. "Payneful mistake" indeed.
Keep spewing the hate. It does your community proud.
Um Sue, I mean, "Star", I think you and I both know this is not just about expressing an opinion. In the event that you were unaware, it's actually wrong, unethical and problematic to make false accusations against people and mischaracterize them, 'kay?
Still waiting to see what Daniel did at the meeting. Please let us know ASAP, ok?
May you shine brightly!
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