Prosecute the torture.

December 17, 2009

The Trib Brain Trust Tells Half The Story. Again.

From today's Pittsburgh Tribune Review (the Thursday Wrap):
Climate-change cleric Al Gore once again finds himself on the wrong end of an inconvenient truth. At the U.N. climate summit in Copenhagen he told attendees that "fresh" estimates show a 75 percent likelihood that the north polar ice cap will disappear in five to seven years, The Times of London reported. Except the scientist whose research Mr. Gore referenced said he had no clue where Ozone Al came up with that finding. The former veep later said it was a "ballpark" figure. Brrrrrrrr!
I'll say it right off. Gore did get the figure wrong. But when you won't be surprised by what Richard Mellon Scaife's brain-trust left out. Turns out that the (of course unnamed) scientist the brain-trust references agrees (in a "ballpark" sort of way) with what Gore said.

This is from the original Times Online article:
In his speech, Mr Gore told the conference: “These figures are fresh. Some of the models suggest to Dr [Wieslav] Maslowski that there is a 75 per cent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years.”

However, the climatologist whose work Mr Gore was relying upon dropped the former Vice-President in the water with an icy blast.

“It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at,” Dr Maslowski said. “I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this.”

Mr Gore’s office later admitted that the 75 per cent figure was one used by Dr Maslowksi as a “ballpark figure” several years ago in a conversation with Mr Gore.
Further down the same article we find:
Dr Maslowki, who works at the US Naval Postgraduate School in California, said that his latest results give a six-year projection for the melting of 80 per cent of the ice, but he said he expects some ice to remain beyond 2020.

He added: “I was very explicit that we were talking about near-ice-free conditions and not completely ice-free conditions in the northern ocean. I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this,” he said. “It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at, based on the information I provided to Al Gore’s office.” [emphasis added.]
But Gore's point is that the Arctic ice is melting very very quickly and Maslowski's point is that the Arctic ice is melting very very quickly. Any idea why Scaife's gang would omit that part?

And for those chewing the fat on thinning arctic ice, take a look at this BBC report from almost exactly 2 years ago:
Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.

Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.

Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss. [emphasis added]
And a few paragraphs later:
"Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007," the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.
"So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative."
One wouldn't expect Scaife's brain-trust to waste their time with such in depth research (which took me all of 30 minutes) when there's spin to be spun - especially Al Gore spin!

Teh Crazie - Al Gore style.

4 comments:

Heir to the Throne said...

That's Media Matters level of spinning to excuse St. Albert when he pulls stuff out of his butt (like the million+ degrees earth core).
Looks like the Scaife's brain-trust does get somethings wrong.

Ban assault weapons

EdHeath said...

HTTP, you mean the Trib shouldn't even print a letter expressing a viewpoint that conservatives might disagree with? You can't tolerate even the existence of opposing viewpoints, even if it comes from some well meaning reader of the Tribune Review?

Meanwhile, if in six years 80 percent of the ice in the Arctic Circle has melted, the planet will be in major trouble. Your complaints about Al Gore's hyperbole, although somewhat justified as Dayvoe himself notes, will seem pretty damn petty at that point. I mean, I actually really hope there is some truth in the conservative notion that global warming is at least over hyped. Because otherwise we are going to be miserable. The developing world will have it worse, but since mass starvation and death will generate terrorism on a massive scale, we will all suffer to some degree.

But you will get your wish, all our constitutional rights will go down a conservative drain, and we will likely become something of a dictatorship. An exceptional American dictatorship. And of course ironically it will be the Republicans who will benefit politically. Even though they will share the blame for causing more deaths than Hitler and Stalin put together (well, of course they share some of those deaths).

Your happy thought for the day.

Heir to the Throne said...

if in six years 80 percent of the ice in the Arctic Circle has melted
So can I use that prediction to prove Global climate change?
If that happens in the next 6 years, I will become a Democrat and support catbon taxes.

EdHeath said...

"Dr Maslowki, who works at the US Naval Postgraduate School in California, said that his latest results give a six-year projection for the melting of 80 per cent of the ice" was Dayvoe's quote, frrom a newspaper article (actually I am a little confused, it might be from a Times of London article). Just to be clear, I don't want this guy (or more specifically his research) to be right. But if he is, supporting carbon taxes att the point where the ice is mostly gone will probably be a lot like the canonical closing the barn door.

You know, the point of research and theories and models and information technology is that we are supposed to be smart enough to head off problems before they occur. But we weren't with the housing bubble or the effects of securitizng subprime mortgages and apparently we won't be with Climate Change. If you want to wait until 80% of the Arctic ice is gone before youre are willing to admit there might be something to climate change theory, well, that will makeyou about the same as the rest of us.