Climate-change cleric Al Gore once again finds himself on the wrong end of an inconvenient truth. At the U.N. climate summit in Copenhagen he told attendees that "fresh" estimates show a 75 percent likelihood that the north polar ice cap will disappear in five to seven years, The Times of London reported. Except the scientist whose research Mr. Gore referenced said he had no clue where Ozone Al came up with that finding. The former veep later said it was a "ballpark" figure. Brrrrrrrr!I'll say it right off. Gore did get the figure wrong. But when you won't be surprised by what Richard Mellon Scaife's brain-trust left out. Turns out that the (of course unnamed) scientist the brain-trust references agrees (in a "ballpark" sort of way) with what Gore said.
This is from the original Times Online article:
In his speech, Mr Gore told the conference: “These figures are fresh. Some of the models suggest to Dr [Wieslav] Maslowski that there is a 75 per cent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years.”Further down the same article we find:
However, the climatologist whose work Mr Gore was relying upon dropped the former Vice-President in the water with an icy blast.
“It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at,” Dr Maslowski said. “I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this.”
Mr Gore’s office later admitted that the 75 per cent figure was one used by Dr Maslowksi as a “ballpark figure” several years ago in a conversation with Mr Gore.
Dr Maslowki, who works at the US Naval Postgraduate School in California, said that his latest results give a six-year projection for the melting of 80 per cent of the ice, but he said he expects some ice to remain beyond 2020.But Gore's point is that the Arctic ice is melting very very quickly and Maslowski's point is that the Arctic ice is melting very very quickly. Any idea why Scaife's gang would omit that part?
He added: “I was very explicit that we were talking about near-ice-free conditions and not completely ice-free conditions in the northern ocean. I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this,” he said. “It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at, based on the information I provided to Al Gore’s office.” [emphasis added.]
And for those chewing the fat on thinning arctic ice, take a look at this BBC report from almost exactly 2 years ago:
Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.And a few paragraphs later:
Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.
Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss. [emphasis added]
"Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007," the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.
"So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative."One wouldn't expect Scaife's brain-trust to waste their time with such in depth research (which took me all of 30 minutes) when there's spin to be spun - especially Al Gore spin!
Teh Crazie - Al Gore style.