Jim O'Toole of the P-G wrote at Early Returns yesterday:
We told you about that DSCC poll showing Joe Sestak's bow edging ahead of the U.S.S. Toomey _nautical metaphor are obligatory when writing about the admiral's campaign. Now our pal, the trusty lookout Tom Fitzgerald of the good ship Inky, ahoys us with news of another internal Dem poll depicting a Senate regatta with the candidates in hailing distance of one another _ Sestak, 46 percent, Toomey 45 percent. Those ads charging that Toomey wants to take everyone's Social Security check and mail them to Chinese businessmen to buy risky derivatives might be working.Here's the piece from Fitzgerald at philly.com:
Democrat Joe Sestak has clawed his way into a statistical tie with Republican Pat Toomey in the Pennsylvania Senate race, according to two new internal Democratic polls.And adds some details for that DSCC poll:
Toomey was leading Sestak 46 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in a poll conducted for Sestak's campaign by David Petts, of the Washington firm Bennett, Petts and Normington, and obtained by The Philadelphia Inquirer. The survey of 800 likely voters was conducted Oct. 4-6, and results were subject to a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Also, a poll conducted for the Democratic Senatatorial Campaign Committee by Garin-Hart-Yang over the last week showed Sestak leading Toomey 44 percent to 42 percent. When "leaners" were pushed to make a choice, Sestak went up 47 percent to 44 percent. The poll was based on 606 likely voters.A few caveats from Chris Bowers at the dailykos:
This is the first poll in a while to show Sestak ahead in Pennsylvania, and it’s an internal poll. However, my research on polling averages suggests that including internal polls in the final averages actually increases the accuracy of the averages. Also, it is the first Pennsylvania poll that will be included in the final Senate Snapshot, since the majority of its interviews were conducted on or after October 8th. [Italics in original]Before you say that all this is meaingless, I'll give Fitzgerald a pre-emptive retort:
DSCC's Republican counterpart certainly is acting as though numbers are moving in this race.And these are supposed to convince me not to support Joe Sestak?
The National Republican Senatorial Committee launched its first ad on behalf of Toomey Wednesday. Entitled "interview," it shows footage of Sestak, a Democratic congressman, saying he supported a bigger stimulus, a public health-care option and the so-called cap-and-trade energy bill.