What Fresh Hell Is This?

October 14, 2010

Some New Poll Data

An astute reader of the blog brought this to my attention last night.

Jim O'Toole of the P-G wrote at Early Returns yesterday:
We told you about that DSCC poll showing Joe Sestak's bow edging ahead of the U.S.S. Toomey _nautical metaphor are obligatory when writing about the admiral's campaign. Now our pal, the trusty lookout Tom Fitzgerald of the good ship Inky, ahoys us with news of another internal Dem poll depicting a Senate regatta with the candidates in hailing distance of one another _ Sestak, 46 percent, Toomey 45 percent. Those ads charging that Toomey wants to take everyone's Social Security check and mail them to Chinese businessmen to buy risky derivatives might be working.
Here's the piece from Fitzgerald at philly.com:
Democrat Joe Sestak has clawed his way into a statistical tie with Republican Pat Toomey in the Pennsylvania Senate race, according to two new internal Democratic polls.

Toomey was leading Sestak 46 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in a poll conducted for Sestak's campaign by David Petts, of the Washington firm Bennett, Petts and Normington, and obtained by The Philadelphia Inquirer. The survey of 800 likely voters was conducted Oct. 4-6, and results were subject to a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
And adds some details for that DSCC poll:
Also, a poll conducted for the Democratic Senatatorial Campaign Committee by Garin-Hart-Yang over the last week showed Sestak leading Toomey 44 percent to 42 percent. When "leaners" were pushed to make a choice, Sestak went up 47 percent to 44 percent. The poll was based on 606 likely voters.
A few caveats from Chris Bowers at the dailykos:
This is the first poll in a while to show Sestak ahead in Pennsylvania, and it’s an internal poll. However, my research on polling averages suggests that including internal polls in the final averages actually increases the accuracy of the averages. Also, it is the first Pennsylvania poll that will be included in the final Senate Snapshot, since the majority of its interviews were conducted on or after October 8th. [Italics in original]
Before you say that all this is meaingless, I'll give Fitzgerald a pre-emptive retort:
DSCC's Republican counterpart certainly is acting as though numbers are moving in this race.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee launched its first ad on behalf of Toomey Wednesday. Entitled "interview," it shows footage of Sestak, a Democratic congressman, saying he supported a bigger stimulus, a public health-care option and the so-called cap-and-trade energy bill.
And these are supposed to convince me not to support Joe Sestak?


rich10e said...

smoke and mirrors...the USS Sestak is dead in the waters!!!

Ol' Froth said...

Sestak did the same thing to Snarlin' Arlen. Dems ought to run ads of Little Ricky Santorum saying that Toomey was too extreme for PA.

EdHeath said...

Pennsylvania is majority Democrat, but of course many of our Democrats are very conservative. Of course, many of our Republicans are not quite as conservative (or at least as religious) as their Southern counterparts. So if Sestak makes the case that a vote for Toomey is a vote to bring back the Bush years, minus the housing bubble, he might convince just enough of everyone (Democrat, independent and even Republican) to vote for him.

PridePress said...

I think there is reason to be hopeful. The Sestak ads are getting traction, and lord knows there is enough for them to exploit.

Joshua said...

Nate Silver is reporting that Rasmussen is giving Toomey a 10-point advantage, largest margin for Toomey during the whole campaign. Who to believe?

Then again, as a registered voter in Florida I'm thankful I don't have to vote in this race, because I don't know if I could vote for Sestak. Methinks a lot of Squirrel-Hillians will either skip the Senate race on the ballot or sit at home on Election Day. I can't wait to see the exit polls to see if my prediction holds.

jay said...

Dead in the water, huh?

Teabaggers like Rich would like people to think that the election is over before we've even cast our votes.

But I felt for a while that Sestak would do what he did during the primary and close strong. He was trailing Arlen Specter until the last few weeks of the primary. And when the voters finally started comparing the two, they went with Sestak.

Pat Toomey is just too extreme for most Pennyslvanians; Joe Sestak is much more representative of this state.

And he's not a pawn for the Chamber of Commerce and its foreign donors.

jay said...

The scariest thing about Toomey (and there are many) is that he doesn't care if our jobs get shipped to China.

Big Business clowns like Toomey want a level playing field for American workers though - they want American workers to compete with cheap foreign labor by reducing wages, eliminating benefits, erasing workplace regulations that protect worker safety and increasing the profits of the big wigs at the top who don't have a clue about working hard for a living.

rich10e said...

Most Dems in know I Pgh voted against Specter not for Sestak. That is why Sestak was able to narrow and then take the lead. These Dems will also vote for Toomey against Sestak.As will a large majority of voters statewide.Anyone who believes this CofC bs is naive and a political neophyte.Your penchant for name calling also makes me question your maturity. The fact that you get your political insights from commercials only affirms what i've said.I have been actively involved in Democratic politics in Pgh and Allegheny County for close to 40 years.If you think the majority of Pittsburgh Dems are the left leaning progressive that you champion, you're incorrect. Ask Obama when he ran against Hillary here in PA.

Ol' Froth said...

Whenever I see a Rasmussen poll, I just giggle.