Prosecute the torture.

January 22, 2013

Polling! Data! For the Mayoral Race!


I promise -- this photo is relevant and not just the shameless use of a popular meme!

Having just finished up a presidential campaign, one gets used to obsessing over polling data. However, for as long as I've been back in Pittsburgh, there never seems to be much polling done on local elections. There was, of course, that 2011 poll which showed that the current mayor had a mere 19% approval rating, but slim pickings beyond that.

Now, CivicScience aims to change all that. They looked at a hypothetical two-way race between Ravenstahl and Peduto (this was done prior to Lamb's announcement) and found a race "within single-digit percentage points" when they polled 1,651 registered Democratic voters.

And, they didn't stop there -- they dug deep -- I mean really deep. They looked at a ton of demographics, lifestyle, shopping, media consumption and other attributes to "identify the characteristics that distinguished a likely Ravenstahl voter from a likely Peduto one."

The results are here. Some are predictable, but some are surprising.

For example, having two cats myself, I would have sworn that Peduto had the cat vote sewn up, but according to CivicScience:
When asked about their favorite pets, the contrast was striking. Cat people are 20% more likely to support Ravenstahl. Dog people are 20% more likely to support Peduto.

OK, I like Bruce Kraus too, so maybe they have a point -- at least when it comes to the leanings of actual cats.

They promise lots more polling in the future, so stay tuned!

No comments: