What Fresh Hell Is This?

May 20, 2013

Some Follow-Up On Those Susquehanna Poll Numbers

There's a little more to say about the Susquehanna poll out a few days ago.  Mostly about the remaining undecideds.  From Keystone Politics:
The final poll of the Pittsburgh Mayor race, from Susquehanna, shows Bill Peduto leading Jack Wagner by 9 points, 42-33.

But wait aren’t there a lot of undecided voters? Sure, there still are about 16% undecided, but when the pollsters pushed them to say which way they’re leaning, Wagner only gets 20% of them. With the soft supporters included, Peduto still has a 7-point lead – safely above the poll’s +/-4.88% margin of error.
I have to add a slight "Yes, but..." here.  In an election of this size (a municipal election where the margin of victory might be a few thousand if not a few hundred votes) nothing is "safely above" or assured.  The worst thing would be for a voter to assume that because these numbers point in one direction that his or her the race is over.  (And this is true for either camp, Wagner or Peduto.)

Moving on:
Wagner would need to win 80% of the undecided voters to overtake Peduto’s lead. Could that happen? It’s unlikely in the extreme.
But it's still possible.  There's only one solution for this situation:  VOTE!

At this point it's all about GOTV - the candidate with the better Get Out The Vote organization will probably win.

It's really very simple.

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