As a result of Trump’s front-runner status, the prognosticators are moving the Senate races in Pennsylvania and Ohio from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-Up”.In this case, Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Report (sub. req. - I'm getting what little I know about it from the PoliticsPA piece)
And, if I am reading it correctly, Donald Trump's at least partially to blame. Take a look:
The other major problem is no one knows what ultimate effect a Trump nomination will have on the rest of the ticket since this would be an unprecedented situation.Given some recent poll data:
“Is it possible for Toomey and Portman to outperform the Republican presidential nominee and go on to win?,” Duffy writes. “Yes, but it is very difficult. The closer the presidential race is in these states, the more likely that can happen. Conversely, the wider the margin of victory at the top of the ticket, the less likely a Portman or a Toomey can survive.”
Following President Barack Obama's nomination of Merrick Garland to fill the open seat on the Supreme Court, a new CNN/ORC poll finds two-thirds of Americans want the Senate to hold confirmation hearings on his candidacy, and a majority of Americans say the Senate should ultimately vote to confirm him. [Emphasis added.]And:
Turning to process, most Republicans disagree with the position taken by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who says the Senate will not hold hearings on Garland's confirmation. Among Republicans, 55% say the Senate should hold hearings on Obama's choice, as do 67% of Democrats and 68% of independents. The 64% overall who say there should be hearings is about the same as the 66% who said so in February before Obama named his choice to fill the vacancy. [Emphasis added.]So not only is Pat Toomey out of step with a majority of Americans on the question of Merrick Garland's Supreme Court nomination, he's out of step with a majority of Republicans on the question Merrick Garland's Supreme Court nomination as well.
If those national numbers are indicative of the opinions of voters in PA, Toomey could be in trouble (I mean more trouble than being moved from the "lean R" to the "toss up" column in the Cook Report).
Maybe after he looses, Pat Toomey can get his old job back at the Club For Growth.