J.D. Prose on the Altmire/Hart Race

If you haven't already read it, go take a look. It's generally favorable to Altmire - and if anything it should be sending a message to the campaign team up there in Hartville. Here's how Prose starts:

Democrat Jason Altmire's campaign is attracting the help of comedian Al Franken and former presidential candidates U.S. Sen. John Kerry and Howard Dean.

Altmire claims to have raised more money than any challenger to a U.S. House incumbent in western Pennsylvania history.

And, at least one political Web site, Nationaljournal.com, has listed the race as one of the 50 House districts that might change parties next month, albeit it's only in at No. 45.

All this in a district that was supposed to be easy sailing for the Republicans. Prose does point out the huge advantage Hart has - the $840,000 difference in campaign contributions.

"It's certainly reassuring to see the great deal of support out there for the congresswoman," Hart campaign manager Luke Myslinski said in what might be the understatement of the political season.

Hmm - I wondered this morning how he defines "out there" so I took a look at the data at opensecrets.org. Very interesting.

The numbers are a little different from Prose's, probably owing to the fact that that opensecrets' data is based on the FEC filing documents - there's always a time lapse there.

If I am reading the page correctly, Hart received a majority (about 54%) of her contributions not from local individual contributors, but from Political Action Committees (PACs). And large majority of those PACs (about 86%) were business PACs.

Nothing wrong with that, of course. But when the Hart campaign is saying "out there" to illustrate where she's getting her funding, you have to realize that for them, a large chunk (in this case about 46%) of "out there" means business PACs.

Jason Altmire, on the other hand, has raised a majority (72%) of his campaign funds from individual people - not PACs. Take a look.

Anyway, back to the article.

Altmire's second television ad has started to run, and he vowed that he would compete with Hart on the all-important airwaves for the next four weeks. "We're going to be able to go TV all the way through" Nov. 7, he said.

Hart, meanwhile, has been running several ads simultaneously - her latest goes after Altmire's "lies" - and even went door-to-door in Beaver County Monday. Hart and her campaign staff have insisted she's leading Altmire by double digits, but they've refused to release any poll results.

I still gotta wonder why they've refused to release the poll numbers - what is she hiding? I mean wouldn't you want everyone to know that you're double digits ahead? Why not release the data for everyone to see?

Here's Prose's ending:

Political analyst G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, said the 4th District race, like many races, is more about voters' attitudes on the Iraq war, President Bush and the Republican Party than any one candidate.

Incumbents "are running hard and running scared if they're Republicans," he said.

"It would have to be a seismic eruption for that seat to shift," Madonna said of the 4th District. "This would truly be one of those (upsets) if (Altmire) wins."

Altmire, however, said he's more confident than ever. Hart, he said, "should be worried if she's not." [emphasis added]

So can we assume Hart's running scared? She won't release the data that "shows" she's in a double digit lead. And tell me again when is that debate between Altmire and Hart? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?

Congresswoman Melissa Hart - Jason Altmire. Who has momentum and who's running scared? I'm just asking.