I've taken a little heat on these pages for too often posting poll numbers on the blog. So be it. But if done fairly poll numbers offer a reliable snapshot of what a large group of people are thinking at a particular time - stack them together and you get a fairly good trend of how people think over time.
The Washington Post/ABC News has been conducting polls about the presidential candidates for a while and here are the poll numbers. If the numbers are accurate, it is not good news for Senator Clinton or her supporters. For example to this question:
4. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of (NAME)?
We get these answers.
Senator Clinton:
NET Favorable/Unfavorable 44/54
Senator Obama:
NET Favorable/Unfavorable 56/39
Senator McCain
NET Favorable/Unfavorable 56/39
Since we're still (STILL!) in the primary season these questions, asked of those polled who are leaning Democratic, looms large:
10.Who would you like to see win the Democratic nomination for president this year - (Hillary Clinton) or (Barack Obama)? Which candidate are you leaning toward?
The answers?
Barack Obama 51%
Hillary Clinton 41%.
And to this question:
Regardless of who you may support, who do you think (ITEM) - (Clinton) or (Obama)?
Is more trustworthy?
Barack Obama 53%
Hillary Clinton 30%
Better understands the problems of people like you?
Barack Obama 46%
Hillary Clinton 41%
(Here it gets strange.)
Has better experience to be president?
Barack Obama 24%
Hillary Clinton 67%
WOW. That's significant. However, before we start rewriting this blog entry, take a look at this question:
(Who) has the better chance of getting elected president in November 2008?
Barack Obama 62%
Hillary Clinton 31%
Remember, these are the folks who are leaning Democratic. While Senator Clinton also scored somewhat higher (49 to 44 percent) over Senator Obama as to who is the stronger leader, the numbers are obvious - more people who are leaning Democratic want to see Barack Obama get the nomination and even more think he has a better chance of getting elected in November than Hillary Clinton.
Then there's this:
Of those leaning Democrats polled who think that the campaign so far has been mostly negative (and granted this is a minority of 41% polled), 52% lay the blame at the feet of the Clinton campaign. Only 14% think that the Obama campaign is to blame for the "mostly negative" tone.
Back to the poll numbers for everyone. If the election were held today, McCain would beat Clinton 48 to 45, but Obama would beat McCain by almost exactly the same numbers 49 to 44.
But this last poll number has to be the kicker.
29. Please tell me if the following statements apply to Hillary Clinton or not: She is honest and trustworthy.
Yes 39%
No 58%
All in all, these numbers do not look good for Senator Clinton.
7 comments:
John K. says: What? No poll numbers on how Bush is doing? You lefties are always posting those low Bush poll numbers. He is at 32% by the ay. I thought all you left wing kooks were running against Bush himself in 2008. LOL
Great post, but now I feel really confused. I had heard about a few polls which showed that, as far as the November election goes, most Obama supporters would vote for Clinton if she were the nominee. Only a small portion of Clinton supporters, on the other hand, would be willing to vote for Obama.
This made me feel like I was out on the tail end of the distribution, because I'm an Obama supporter who would rather vote for McCain if Clinton manages to pull off a "Bush 2000" move by convincing the Democratic superdelegates to ignore the will of the voters and nominate the person who lost the popular vote. I would rather have McCain than all the divisiveness that would result in this kind of "ugly victory" by Hillary.
But the numbers you cite here seem to indicate that Obama is more electable, and that he is more likely to bring Clinton supporters over to his side than vice versa.
There seems to be contradictory data out there regarding which Democrat would be more likely to carry the general election voters who went against them in the primary. You're very good at sorting all of this out, David. Can you tell me which numbers I should believe?
John K.
You say he has a 32% approval rating as if that's a good thing.
John K. says: Actually the low (28 - 35%) poll numbers are a good thing. Liberals like high poll numbers. They are insecure people. They need validation of their very existence and they do this by pandering to whoever they need to. The low Bush poll numbers have cost you left wingers any leverage you might have had with this admin. If you lefties are going to do nothing but bash, no matter what happens, then why worry about you. The result will always be the same. Think I am wrong? How many of you took full advantage of the Bush tax cuts? All the while doing the Howard Dean whine over tax deductions. So with constant bashing and no sign of any middle ground who cares what the left thinks, proceed with the agenda. And that is what Bush has done and now you lefties talk about poll numbers? Grow up, conservatives don't care what you think anymore. Its always going to be the same, Olbermouth badmouthing and whining all the time so why even pay any attention to it. Just move along with the agenda. You left wingers are going to be so suprised in Nov. Oh and have fun mocking the left.
John K. says: Hey I miss the guy taking up blog space and bashing my body parts. LMAO
John K (Anon 8:33):
Wow - I never saw fascism so clearly articulated by someone on the right. THANKS
What sort of democracy do you live in when the will of the people points in one direction and the ruling elite say "so what?" in reaction?
Not-shitrock
Richmond,
If you want my advice, don't get caught up in gamesmanship, in voting for who you think will be the strategically best bet down the road. Vote for the individual you would most like to see as your President. As a person yourself, you are your only barometer as to what other persons might be thinking.
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