On Tuesday the Democratic-leaning polling firm PPP released findings showing Sestak leading his Republican challenger, former Club for Growth President Pat Toomey, for the first time this cycle: 46 percent to 45 percent. Sestak's campaign did not pay for the poll, which was done with recorded voice interviews and with respondents sampled from actual voter lists. A day prior, the odds-makers at ABC News had moved the race from "lean Republican" to "toss up."Here's the report from PPP. They give three reasons for the numbers:
- Democratic voters are getting more engaged as election day moves closer.
- Sestak has wiped out what was an enormous deficit with independents.
- The Democratic base is unifying more around Sestak.
But then this morning, I saw this:
A new poll in Pennsylvania's hotly contested race for U.S. Senate shows that Democrat Joe Sestak has apparently wiped out Republican Pat Toomey's lead.Here's the poll itself from MYOO'-len-berg.
The Muhlenberg (MYOO'-len-berg) College/Allentown Morning Call poll released Wednesday shows Sestak supported by 44 percent of likely voters to Toomey's 41 percent. The numbers include people who are leaning toward voting for a candidate but haven't entirely made up their minds.
I'm not an expert in these things, but it looks like Toomey's support is settling a skosh. For example, his favorable/unfavorable rating from the Sept 28-Oct 4 poll was 44/31 (44% of those surveyed had a favorable impression of Toomey vs 31% who had an unfavorable impression). THIS poll, however, shows a change - Favorable/Unfavorable rating of 34/36. A drop of 10 "favorable" points with a rise of 5 "unfavorable."
Sestak, on the other hand, showed a consistent rating (37/37 in Sep-Oct and a 34/34 now).
The poll has a similar flip in numbers for support of the candidates: Toomey over Sestak 46/39 is Sept 28-Oct 4 poll moved to a Sestak over Toomey 44/41 in the current poll.
Remember, this is only a snapshot. Things could change quickly in any direction but it's my guess is that the more people learn about the Congressman Wall Street, the more they support Joe Sestak.