What Fresh Hell Is This?

October 20, 2010

Some Poll Numbers

First I saw this, yesterday:
On Tuesday the Democratic-leaning polling firm PPP released findings showing Sestak leading his Republican challenger, former Club for Growth President Pat Toomey, for the first time this cycle: 46 percent to 45 percent. Sestak's campaign did not pay for the poll, which was done with recorded voice interviews and with respondents sampled from actual voter lists. A day prior, the odds-makers at ABC News had moved the race from "lean Republican" to "toss up."
Here's the report from PPP. They give three reasons for the numbers:
  • Democratic voters are getting more engaged as election day moves closer.
  • Sestak has wiped out what was an enormous deficit with independents.
  • The Democratic base is unifying more around Sestak.
Interesting stuff - but still it's a "Democratic-leaning" poll.

But then this morning, I saw this:
A new poll in Pennsylvania's hotly contested race for U.S. Senate shows that Democrat Joe Sestak has apparently wiped out Republican Pat Toomey's lead.

The Muhlenberg (MYOO'-len-berg) College/Allentown Morning Call poll released Wednesday shows Sestak supported by 44 percent of likely voters to Toomey's 41 percent. The numbers include people who are leaning toward voting for a candidate but haven't entirely made up their minds.
Here's the poll itself from MYOO'-len-berg.

I'm not an expert in these things, but it looks like Toomey's support is settling a skosh. For example, his favorable/unfavorable rating from the Sept 28-Oct 4 poll was 44/31 (44% of those surveyed had a favorable impression of Toomey vs 31% who had an unfavorable impression). THIS poll, however, shows a change - Favorable/Unfavorable rating of 34/36. A drop of 10 "favorable" points with a rise of 5 "unfavorable."

Sestak, on the other hand, showed a consistent rating (37/37 in Sep-Oct and a 34/34 now).

The poll has a similar flip in numbers for support of the candidates: Toomey over Sestak 46/39 is Sept 28-Oct 4 poll moved to a Sestak over Toomey 44/41 in the current poll.

Remember, this is only a snapshot. Things could change quickly in any direction but it's my guess is that the more people learn about the Congressman Wall Street, the more they support Joe Sestak.


Heir to the Throne said...

Looks like the Democrats are more energized than in 2008.
@JayCost on twitter
PPP finds Joe Sestak in the lead in PA. And all it took was...a sample that is more Dem than the 2008 electorate

jay said...

Yeah, and much of the polling we've seen this year showing huge GOP leads are relying on samples with a GOP-lean that is far above anything we've seen in recent history, including their "revolution" in 1994.