More (real) Poll Numbers

From the T:

Two weeks before the midterm elections, Pennsylvania voters appear ready to elect two Democrats to top statewide offices, according to a new McClatchy-MSNBC poll.

In the race for U.S. Senate, Democratic challenger Bob Casey retains a steady, 12-point lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Santorum, according to the poll. Among likely voters, 51 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Casey, 39 percent for Santorum.

That was a slight, but not significant, bump for Casey from the 49-40 advantage he held three weeks ago in a similar poll.

Depends on how one defines "significant" I guess. I guess since the "bumps" are within the 4-point margin of error, then yea - they're not that significant.

However with one "bump" for Casey edging upward and the other "bump" for Santorum edging down, what was a 9-point lead has become (I guess) a 12 point lead.

Ask yourself this. What would've happened if Santorum "bumped" up 2 points and Casey "bumped" down 1? What would've happened if the numbers were Santorum-42/Casey-48? Rightwing blowhards all over would be screaming that this proves there is movement in Santorum's favor - that the race is finally tightening.

But that's not what happened. And so because whatever movement there is, is in Casey's favor, the "bumps" inside the margin of error are "not significant."

In any case, it's bad news for Rick Santorum, bad news for God's Own Party, and bad news for the social conservatives upon whom they depend.

And that means it's a very good thing.