Showing posts with label Dick Morris. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dick Morris. Show all posts

April 17, 2014

More Voter ID Hysteria From The Trib

Take a look at today's Tribune-Review:
Speaking of grove-variety pecans, “progressives” are in a tizzy-fit over a finding by Kim Strach, North Carolina's director of elections, that suggests nearly 36,000 people with the same names, birth dates and Social Security numbers voted both in the Tar Heel State and other states in 2012. Another 81 North Carolinians voted after they died, reports The Washington Times. But remember, voter fraud is a figment of the conservative imagination. [Bolding in original.]
Still is.

Here's the story:
This week, officials at the North Carolina State Board of Elections announced they had discovered possible evidence of widespread voter fraud in the battleground state.

By cross-checking North Carolina voter rolls with those in 28 other states, leaders of the board told state lawmakers they had found 35,750 records of people who voted in North Carolina and whose first name, last name and date of birth matched people who had voted in other states. More surprisingly, it also revealed 765 North Carolina voters in 2012 whose last four Social Security digits also matched those of people who voted in other states that year.
You might ask, where did they get this information? Did they generate it themselves? Is the source partisan or non-partisan?  And how reliable is it?

All good questions.  Here are some answers:
The cross-check of North Carolina voters was conducted by the office of Kris Kobach, the controversial Secretary of State in Kansas. A long-time Republican political operative, Kobach is known nationally as the architect of legislation cracking down on immigrants in Arizona and elsewhere, as well as severe voting restrictions.

Kobach launched the Interstate Voter Registration Crosscheck Program in 2005 as a free service to states — almost exclusively those led by Republican lawmakers — to flag voters who may be casting ballots in multiple states in the same election, which is a felony. In a traveling PowerPoint presentation Kobach’s office uses to pitch the program (for example, this recent presentation [PPT] in Indiana), they say it’s grown from four Midwestern states sharing 9 million voter records in 2005 to more than two dozen states states sharing 110 million files today.

Here’s how it works: A participating state sends its voter file to Kobach’s office, which compares it — free of charge — against the records from the other states. In 2013, the program flagged a staggering 5 million records of people whose names and date of birth appeared to match.
Wow.  Five million?  Is that evidence of five million double (and therefore felonious) votes?

No.  Did you know that the same Kris Kobach did the same sort of "research" for the State of Pennsylvania?  And did you know that they admitted a high number of "false positives"?  I'll let Vic Walczak of the Pennsylvania ACLU explain:
But the same materials, produced by the Kansas Secretary of State’s Office, candidly acknowledge that many of those potential duplicates are false positives: “Experience in the crosscheck program indicates that a significant number of apparent double votes are false positives and not double votes. Many are the result of errors voters sign the wrong line in the poll book, election clerks scan the wrong line with a barcode scanner, or there is confusion over the father/son voters (Sr. and Jr.).” The program thus flags a huge number of voters as potential duplicates, but admits a high error rate, elevating the ACLU’s concerns about how precisely Pennsylvania will handle voter-registration cancellations.
But that's not all, my friends.  No no.  There is more.

In hearing of this report Dick Morris wrote about the "widespread voter fraud" in North Carolina based on this research (or better, "research").  And doncha know, Politifact rated it false.

Their ruling?  Take a look:
Morris said that the large number of North Carolina voters matched with records in other states was proof that over 1 million people voted twice in the 2012 election. While Morris admittedly was extrapolating from the North Carolina data, his conclusion is flawed on several fronts.

The head of North Carolina’s board of elections did not claim that even the closest matches on name, birth date and Social Security numbers was conclusive evidence. She said more investigation was needed. The track record of the Interstate Crosscheck project shows that a tiny fraction of all potential matches represents any kind of voting fraud. In Kansas, out of more than 850,000 votes cast, only 14 names were recommended for prosecution and the Kansas Secretary of State reported no convictions.

In other states, database quirks, human error and the statistics of large numbers have been shown to trim the initial reports of widespread fraud down to the barest sliver of actual cases.

We rate the claim False.
False.  Scaife's braintrust really needs to do better than this.  But we all know they can't.

March 17, 2013

More On Dick Morris

Dick Morris spoke at CPAC this weekend.

Let me point out, in case you've forgotten, that Dick Morris predicted a Romney landslide of 325 electoral votes - so he's eminently qualified to discuss the GOP's future.  That being said, TPM is reporting that this weekend lectured God's Own Party on a few things.

On immigration:
...Morris urged Republicans to pass immigration reform immediately. Once the immigration issue is out of the way, he argued, Latinos would embrace the conservative values, switch sides and ultimately become “the salvation of the Republican Party.”
Solid prediction, Dick.

But take a look at what TPM reports next:
But immigration reform, even with a path to citizenship that Morris supports, is not the tough sell to conservatives that it once was.

The harder sell came in his next prescription: Give up on Roe v. Wade.

In order to win back young women, Morris argued that Republicans should stop trying to make abortion illegal and instead focus on a bipartisan effort to reduce the instances of abortion.

“Single white women run screaming from the Republican Party, largely because of our pro-life position,” Morris said. Morris stressed that Republicans can remain pro-life in principle, but needed to shift their focus away from the courts and embrace polices like “adoption, adoption tax incentives, birth control, abstinence, parental notification, parental support … a whole range of efforts, some sponsored by the right, some sponsored by the left.”

Overturning Roe v. Wade, he said, was “a case we’re never going to win.”
Wow. He actually said something rational.  The only problem is, what he's proposing (" a whole range of efforts, some sponsored by the right, some sponsored by the left.") would involve something called "com-pro-mise" and "com-pro-mise" is something the anti-RINO's in Reagan's former party just simply won't do.

On the other hand, take a look at this clip from last February (h/t to Hotair.com):


Wow. This guy's good.  Good to know he's still working hard for the GOP.  They need more Dicks like him.

November 7, 2012

Now, On That Romney Landslide

A few days ago, The Blaze posted a piece called:
ROMNEY LANDSLIDE: HERE ARE THE BIGGEST NAMES PREDICTING IT & HOW IT WILL HAPPEN
By the way as of this writing, the electoral college stands at 303-206 (Florida and its 29 electoral votes still unassigned) with President Obama winning.  No Romney victory.  No Romney "landslide."

It's one thing to promote your party's candidate by "predicting" a win - but a landslide?  Who are these people?

From The Blaze:
  • CNBC's Larry Kudlow predicted 330 electoral votes for Romney
  • George Will predicted 321 electoral votes for Romney
  • Dick Morris predicted a landslide, though I can't find a specific electoral college count
  • Michael Barone predicted 315 electoral votes for Romney
  • Glenn Beck predicted 321 electoral votes for Romeny
I do have a question.  If, as these gentlemen have asserted, electoral vote totals of between 315 and 330 constitute a "landslide" and if Florida's 29 electoral votes go to Obama (at this writing he's ahead with 97% of the precincts reporting) what should we then say of President Obama's 332 (303 + 29) electoral votes?

Could we then call it a landslide?

I'm just asking.

April 17, 2010

Um, What?

The Tribune-Review's got a new BFF - Dick Morris. Take a look:
Pennsylvania will be the "epicenter" of sweeping change that's coming in national elections this fall, political strategist and author Dick Morris told a gathering of 500 conservatives Friday night.

Morris was the keynote speaker at the Pennsylvania Leadership Conference, the premier annual gathering for grassroots activists and groups touting conservative causes.

The former adviser to President Clinton, and a favorite of many conservatives for his stinging rebukes of the Clintons and of President Obama, predicted Republicans will sweep the House and Senate races to take control of Congress, stop the health care law in its tracks and force a government shutdown when Obama vetoes the reversal.
Wow. That's a serious prediction, isn't it? Dick Morris must have made a career out of making serious predictions that came true, right? I mean to be invited to the Pennsylvania Leadership Conference and all. They must be interested in what he's written in the past, right?

I guess the folks over there missed this prediction from a book he co-wrote in 2005:
On January 20, 2009, at precisely noon, the world will witness the inauguration of the forty-fourth president of the United States. As the chief justice administers the oath of office on the flag-draped podium in front of the U.S. Capitol, the first woman president, Hillary Rodham Clinton, will be sworn into office. By her side, smiling broadly and holding the family Bible, will be her chief strategist, husband, and copresident, William Jefferson Clinton.
Then he amends his prediction:
But her victory is not inevitable. There is one, and only one, figure in America who can stop Hillary Clinton: Secretary of State Condoleezza "Condi" Rice. Among all of the possible Republican candidates for president, Condi alone could win the nomination, defeat Hillary, and derail a third Clinton administration.
Wow. Impressive.

So when Dick Morris writes this on the pages of the same Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:
The Obama health care initiative will be the biggest unfunded federal mandate on the states in history. It will force dozens of states, particularly in the South, to abandon their low-tax ways and to move toward dramatically higher rates of taxation. It may even force Florida and Texas to impose an income tax!
We know he's full of crap, right?

Take a look at this chart from the Tax Policy Center. If I am reading it correctly, it's saying that no one making less than $500,000 per year will see a tax increase. No one.

Tell me again why we should trust this Dick?